NEWS
Jobs report Friday to provide important clues on where the economy is heading
By Jeff Cox, CNBC Published 4 hours ago Updated 4 hours ago

Steven Chechette (C) speaks with a recruiter at the KeySource booth at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2025, in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post an increase of 133,000, a steep slide from the 228,000 in March. However, it would be only slightly below the 152,000 average for the first three months of the year.
A downside surprise could be perilous considering the spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs.
Clues on whether the U.S. economy is merely in a temporary tariff-induced funk or a more damaging longer-turn downtrend should come Friday when the Labor Department releases the April jobs report.
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post an increase of 133,000, which would be a steep slide from the 228,000 in March, according to the Dow Jones consensus. However, it would be only slightly below the 152,000 average for the first three months of the year and likely would be enough to hold the unemployment rate around 4.2%.
But a downside surprise could be perilous considering the recent spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs against U.S. trading partners.
"If it's around 150,000 give or take, I think all will be forgiven," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "So I think we'll end the week feeling OK, not great, but OK. Things aren't falling apart."
However, Zandi and other economists say financial markets may want to brace for disappointment. Specifically, he has his eye on anything less than 100,000 for payrolls growth, which he expects would cause the dour economic feelings to take over.
"If the number's 100,000 or anything south of that, then I think I'd watch out," he said. "Then all the other data will take on greater importance, and people will be marking down their expectations. That could be a tough day in the markets."
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