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Jobs report Friday to provide important clues on where the economy is heading
The story came from CNBC.
Jobs report Friday to provide important clues on where the economy is heading
NEWS
Jobs report Friday to provide important clues on where the economy is heading
By Jeff Cox, CNBC • Published 4 hours ago • Updated 4 hours ago
Steven Chechette (C) speaks with a recruiter at the KeySource booth at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2025, in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
• Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post an increase of 133,000, a steep slide from the 228,000 in March. However, it would be only slightly below the 152,000 average for the first three months of the year.
• A downside surprise could be perilous considering the spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs.
Clues on whether the U.S. economy is merely in a temporary tariff-induced funk or a more damaging longer-turn downtrend should come Friday when the Labor Department releases the April jobs report.
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post an increase of 133,000, which would be a steep slide from the 228,000 in March, according to the Dow Jones consensus. However, it would be only slightly below the 152,000 average for the first three months of the year and likely would be enough to hold the unemployment rate around 4.2%.
But a downside surprise could be perilous considering the recent spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs against U.S. trading partners. … "If it's around 150,000 give or take, I think all will be forgiven," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "So I think we'll end the week feeling OK, not great, but OK. Things aren't falling apart."
However, Zandi and other economists say financial markets may want to brace for disappointment. Specifically, he has his eye on anything less than 100,000 for payrolls growth, which he expects would cause the dour economic feelings to take over. … "If the number's 100,000 or anything south of that, then I think I'd watch out," he said. "Then all the other data will take on greater importance, and people will be marking down their expectations. That could be a tough day in the markets."
{snip}
Jobs report Friday to provide important clues on where the economy is heading
By Jeff Cox, CNBC • Published 4 hours ago • Updated 4 hours ago
Steven Chechette (C) speaks with a recruiter at the KeySource booth at the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on April 30, 2025, in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
• Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post an increase of 133,000, a steep slide from the 228,000 in March. However, it would be only slightly below the 152,000 average for the first three months of the year.
• A downside surprise could be perilous considering the spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs.
Clues on whether the U.S. economy is merely in a temporary tariff-induced funk or a more damaging longer-turn downtrend should come Friday when the Labor Department releases the April jobs report.
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to post an increase of 133,000, which would be a steep slide from the 228,000 in March, according to the Dow Jones consensus. However, it would be only slightly below the 152,000 average for the first three months of the year and likely would be enough to hold the unemployment rate around 4.2%.
But a downside surprise could be perilous considering the recent spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over the way President Donald Trump is implementing tariffs against U.S. trading partners. … "If it's around 150,000 give or take, I think all will be forgiven," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "So I think we'll end the week feeling OK, not great, but OK. Things aren't falling apart."
However, Zandi and other economists say financial markets may want to brace for disappointment. Specifically, he has his eye on anything less than 100,000 for payrolls growth, which he expects would cause the dour economic feelings to take over. … "If the number's 100,000 or anything south of that, then I think I'd watch out," he said. "Then all the other data will take on greater importance, and people will be marking down their expectations. That could be a tough day in the markets."
{snip}
3 replies
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LIVE Updated
May 2, 2025, 7:05 a.m. ET 22 minutes ago
Live Updates: U.S. Job Growth Expected to Have Slowed in April
Economists expect hiring fell back to 138,000 positions in April, from 228,000 in March. After a month of volatile trading, Wall Street will be scrutinizing the report for signs of restrained growth in the economy.
A job fair last month in San Antonio, Texas. Montinique Monroe for The New York Times
Talmon Joseph Smith
Here’s what to know:
The government’s monthly employment report is set to be released Friday morning, with tensions high among consumers and businesses now bracing for the financial impact of the Trump administration’s worldwide tariff campaign. … Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the data for April to show that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, while job growth slowed to 138,000 from 228,000 in March.
Although President Trump had been telegraphing his intention to institute high tariffs since reassuming office in January, the White House did not put those import taxes into effect until early April. So if employers have substantially pulled back on hiring, that shift may not show up in official data until other reports capture it in the coming weeks and months.
Data released this week showed that the U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of the year — largely a result of a surge in imports as firms and households bought goods to try to get ahead of the tariffs.
White House officials have downplayed the early consequences of the president’s tariffs. But a broad range of economists are concerned that the dip in growth will not be isolated as businesses, especially those that rely on supplies from China, pull back on activity until tariffs are either reduced or locked in at a predictable level.
{snip}
May 2, 2025, 7:05 a.m. ET 22 minutes ago
Live Updates: U.S. Job Growth Expected to Have Slowed in April
Economists expect hiring fell back to 138,000 positions in April, from 228,000 in March. After a month of volatile trading, Wall Street will be scrutinizing the report for signs of restrained growth in the economy.
A job fair last month in San Antonio, Texas. Montinique Monroe for The New York Times
Talmon Joseph Smith
Here’s what to know:
The government’s monthly employment report is set to be released Friday morning, with tensions high among consumers and businesses now bracing for the financial impact of the Trump administration’s worldwide tariff campaign. … Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the data for April to show that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, while job growth slowed to 138,000 from 228,000 in March.
Although President Trump had been telegraphing his intention to institute high tariffs since reassuming office in January, the White House did not put those import taxes into effect until early April. So if employers have substantially pulled back on hiring, that shift may not show up in official data until other reports capture it in the coming weeks and months.
Data released this week showed that the U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of the year — largely a result of a surge in imports as firms and households bought goods to try to get ahead of the tariffs.
White House officials have downplayed the early consequences of the president’s tariffs. But a broad range of economists are concerned that the dip in growth will not be isolated as businesses, especially those that rely on supplies from China, pull back on activity until tariffs are either reduced or locked in at a predictable level.
{snip}
