Texas

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The targets. Here are the Democrats who are most directly in the danger zone.

1) Rep. Henry Cuellar in the Rio Grande Valley (currently the 28th District, although this may change). Thanks to South Texas’ rapid political realignment, Cuellar already represents a seat that Trump won by seven points. It may not get a whole lot worse than that but the longtime Democratic incumbent is also facing federal charges of bribery and money laundering.

2) Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the Rio Grande Valley (34th District). Just like Cuellar’s district, this seat swung hard to the right in 2024 at the presidential level. Gonzalez survived a tough race in November but his seat is certainly getting redder.

3) Rep. Julie Johnson in the Dallas Metro area (32nd District). Republicans packed this district full of Democrats ahead of the 2022 cycle. Now, they want it back.

4) Reps. Greg Casar (35th District) and Lloyd Doggett (37th District). Casar’s district snakes up Interstate 35 between San Antonio and Austin. Doggett’s is Austin-based. Republicans are eyeing a new red seat in the region and that leaves just one district for Casar and Doggett.

This could be a fascinating primary. Casar, 36, and the youngest ever chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, versus Doggett, the 78-year-old dean of the Texas delegation. Doggett was the first House Democrat to call on President Joe Biden to exit the presidential race in 2024 following his disastrous debate with Trump.

5) Rep. Marc Veasey in the Dallas Metroplex (33rd District). Veasey’s district spans from Fort Worth to Dallas. It’s possible the new map will cut out the Fort Worth part of his district. That doesn’t mean Veasey won’t have a Dallas-based seat to run in, but he’s from Fort Worth. If Veasey retires, Johnson could run in that seat.

There will be a new GOP seat in the greater Houston metropolitan area. But remember: There is a vacant blue seat in Houston because Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner died on March 5 and the special election to replace him isn’t until November.


https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/texas-sized-gamble/