Nate Silver Says Polls May Be 'Overestimating' Trump After 'Huge' Miss [View all]

Source: Newsweek

Nov 05, 2025 at 05:51 PM EST


Polls could be overestimating President Donald Trump’s support following a “huge” miss in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, pollster Nate Silver said.

Why It Matters

Democrats swept Tuesday night’s elections, handily winning the closely watched New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races and securing other victories across the country. These gains have reignited Democratic optimism ahead of the 2026 midterms, as the party pushes to reclaim control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.

What To Know

Silver, in his Silver Bulletin newsletter, lamented on polls being “not great,” particularly in New Jersey. A flurry of them released before Election Day showed a tight race between Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Real Clear Politics’ aggregate gave Sherrill only a 3-point advantage.

But Sherrill ended up winning by a much larger margin. She held a 13-point lead over Ciattarelli with 95 percent of the vote in, meaning she performed 10 points stronger than polls predicted.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-says-polls-may-be-overestimating-trump-after-huge-miss-11000128

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As "the smoke clears" after this off-year/non-midterm election, this shows why these "polls" have increasingly become bullshit. Each "miss" forces them to overreact for the next election cycle and push-poll themselves into a different result, and that becomes a FAIL, and Silver is one of the problems.