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BumRushDaShow

(163,346 posts)
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 04:21 AM Nov 6

Nate Silver Says Polls May Be 'Overestimating' Trump After 'Huge' Miss

Source: Newsweek

Nov 05, 2025 at 05:51 PM EST


Polls could be overestimating President Donald Trump’s support following a “huge” miss in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, pollster Nate Silver said.

Why It Matters

Democrats swept Tuesday night’s elections, handily winning the closely watched New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races and securing other victories across the country. These gains have reignited Democratic optimism ahead of the 2026 midterms, as the party pushes to reclaim control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.

What To Know

Silver, in his Silver Bulletin newsletter, lamented on polls being “not great,” particularly in New Jersey. A flurry of them released before Election Day showed a tight race between Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Real Clear Politics’ aggregate gave Sherrill only a 3-point advantage.

But Sherrill ended up winning by a much larger margin. She held a 13-point lead over Ciattarelli with 95 percent of the vote in, meaning she performed 10 points stronger than polls predicted.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-says-polls-may-be-overestimating-trump-after-huge-miss-11000128



As "the smoke clears" after this off-year/non-midterm election, this shows why these "polls" have increasingly become bullshit. Each "miss" forces them to overreact for the next election cycle and push-poll themselves into a different result, and that becomes a FAIL, and Silver is one of the problems.
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Irish_Dem

(77,969 posts)
4. Corporate Media is the propaganda arm for the Putin/Trump Crime syndicate.
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 06:41 AM
Nov 6

They get paid in rubles and crypto.

Bernardo de La Paz

(60,320 posts)
2. Motivation to vote benefits one side or the other more and outweighs polls. Only Election Day poll counts. . . nt
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 06:04 AM
Nov 6

Javaman

(64,914 posts)
5. oh Nate Silver once again pointing out the obvious.
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 07:35 AM
Nov 6

why do people still listen to him?

he was right like once and he continues to ride that wave.

anyone paying the least amount of attention knows this.

wolfie001

(6,524 posts)
6. The dummy didn't factor in the "Diaper-Don Kiss of Death"
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 08:19 AM
Nov 6

Duh. He's a "closeted" republiCON probably Jackass. Ooooh! Just looked him up. Also, he's a wealthy scion. Never had to sweat out an 8 hr. day. Born on 3rd base and halfway home. He def. has a dog in the fight. His family's generational wealth. Again

modrepub

(3,964 posts)
7. M$M Sponsors Most Polls
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 09:13 AM
Nov 6

Polls that show close races generate more advertising $. And pollsters fudging numbers to make races look close get more polls sponsored by the M$M.

So what incentive is there for poll accuracy?

BumRushDaShow

(163,346 posts)
8. Case in point
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 09:33 AM
Nov 6

For the NJ gubernatorial race, the "early" polling was showing Mikie Sherrill running something like 10% ahead of Jack Ciattarelli. But then as we got closer to the election, the old "trick up the sleeve" was unleashed with the declaration of "But the polls are narrowing now" and "the race is tightening"... It was to the point where some polling outfits had her and him at an almost statistical tie a few days before the election.

The actuals? She beat him by 13%.

With all the elections this past Tuesday, I was duly shocked that the race calls came so quickly after the polls closed because the pollsters were pushing the same narratives of "these races are close" (for many of them), meaning contested results, and a probable long wait for a final "call".

generalbetrayus

(1,384 posts)
9. Perhaps on the plus side, polls showing tight races in lieu of the truth of the situation
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 10:14 AM
Nov 6

might inspire some voters who might not bother to vote if the lead were thought to be huge to turn out and vote.

BumRushDaShow

(163,346 posts)
10. IMHO
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 10:30 AM
Nov 6

the main reason why people came out is because a broader swath of people have finally been DIRECTLY IMPACTED by what has been going on.

Billions were spent on blasting out "warnings" of this potential during last year's campaign season and that was ignored.

NOW people are actually feeling the effects that were listed in those warnings - including the "broken promises" of a better economy, etc.

Instead they were treated to ethnic cleansing, book banning, violent round-ups and mass deportations (including of U.S. citizens), censorship, mass firings of civil servants (and corresponding "non-civil servants - i.e., "contractors" who WERE WORKERS for the federal government and represent TWICE as many in numbers as actual civil servants), and HIGHER prices due to tariffs.

generalbetrayus

(1,384 posts)
11. I agree that the main reason that people came out has to do with rejection of the Orange Julius Caesar program.
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 10:55 AM
Nov 6

I just offered the close polling margin as a past, present, and future hypothetical.

BumRushDaShow

(163,346 posts)
12. These polls keep the head honchos in the media "happy" with the "horse race" coverage
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 11:15 AM
Nov 6

and more eyeballs.

GopherGal

(2,713 posts)
14. Right.
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 01:18 PM
Nov 6

Close race = more viewers/readers

But also, risk aversion probably plays some sort of role here. If the consensus has Jones in a small lead over Smith, but Tom's Polling Consortium (TPC) has Jones in a big lead, TPC can end up with egg on their face if Jones doesn't win, so they put a new poll in the field, re-jiggered to favor Smith (say by a little push-polling in the question wording, over-sampling Smith-friendly groups, include/exclude cell phones, whatever other tricks they've got up their sleeve). Even if the results still come back in Jones' favor, maybe the gap is smaller, so they can say the race is tightening, and now they have their posterior covered if the election comes out in Smith's favor.

Deminpenn

(17,168 posts)
15. Polls
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 03:16 PM
Nov 6

A few things, first the 2016, 2020 and 2024 election results show that when Trump's name is on the ballot, it does pull out "unlikely" voters. And they vote for Rs down ballot. Those who are first time or very sporadic voters. They disappear when Trump's name isn't on the ballot. The US Senate runoff election in GA in 2017, just weeks after Trump was elected president first showed that phenomenon.

Second, we know R pollsters with methodologies that gave biased samples produced many polls with results that were unrealistically close. This rash of polls had the effect of skewing the poll-averaging sites like RCP and of those using poll-averages. The end result is a narrative that specific races are closer than they
actually are.

Last, this is not rocket science to figure out.

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