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Last edited Wed Sep 10, 2025, 02:32 PM - Edit history (1)

It's that it's likely there's ever been advanced life on 1 in millions or billions of planets. Which means its likely the nearest planet with life is 1000's or perhaps Millions of light years away.

It's that it's likely these other advanced civilizations are going to deplete their resources and go long extinct (or revert to much less energy intensive ways of life) long before developing a technology capable of interstellar travel (like I am POSITIVE humanity is going to do) because the way that the evolution needed to create such life works, it will probably create creatures as selfish and short-sighted as we are.

It's that the physics of travelling anywhere at speeds fast enough to travel from one advanced civilization planet to another involve very, very large amounts of fuel (even if that fuel were nuclear) that would in turn cause the vessels to be so immense that it would slow them down drastically. Like the fuel would have to occupy space 1000's of times larger than the 'living area' for the beings transported.

It's that hitting a spec of space dust the size of a grain of sand would vaporize (this large) vehicle traveling at the needed speeds (i.e. significant fractions of the speed of light).

And then there's the fact that such a civilization must occur at just the correct tiny sliver of time for their society and ours to intersect in the spacetime continuum. This fact ALONE makes the occurrence highly unlikely.

And then there's the fact that we've NEVER discovered any actual evidence that it's happened, despite our fairly advanced systems of detection, and ability to chemically analyze matter.

You combine the odds involved in all the above facts (which involves multiplying many extremely tiny fractions of probabilities) and I believe the likelihood that we are regularly visited by aliens (without being able to show that it's happening) is, for all practical purposes, infinitely remote. So remote that it makes no sense to me to credulously speculate that seemingly unexplainable sky phenomena are actually alien visitations.

Lastly and conversely, I am nearly equally sure that, at some point, there HAVE been advanced civilizations capable of travel within their solar systems, as we are, in the universe. So I consider 'alien life, ever' and 'alien visitation of earth' to have astronomically different probabilities of occurrence.