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The Education Department predicts fewer than 10 employers would be barred annually and says it does not expect a "significant reduction" in the share of borrowers receiving forgiveness. Still, the agency acknowledges the impact would not be evenly felt. Schools, universities, health care providers, social work agencies and legal service organizations are among those most likely to face eligibility challenges.

In states that ban gender-affirming care for minors, offering such care could be grounds for exclusion. A court ruling against an employer — or even a legal settlement admitting wrongdoing — could also lead to expulsion from PSLF. The secretary could independently determine ineligibility using a "preponderance of the evidence" standard, meaning it is more likely than not that the allegation is true.