where many of the GOP votes were Latino and (non-white) Latinos are now the majority population in the state. I.e., there is some FAFO that is starting to set in.
July 31, 2025
Republican Power Grab in Texas Depends on Iffy Latino Gains
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As these numbers show, Trump outperformed his party significantly in 2024, and a lot of that was attributable to his success among Latino voters in the Lone Star State. To a considerable extent, the impact of the new Texas map depends on whether Republicans can both consolidate that onetime Latino support and transfer it to congressional candidates when Trump is not on the ballot. That could be tricky, and could even backfire, as Politico reports:
Across counties that were at least 75 percent Hispanic, Trump ran 8.6 points ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz, indicating Latino voters were more likely to cast their ballots for both Cruz’s Democratic rival, Colin Allred, and Trump.
If Latino voters show similar openness to downballot Democrats candidates without Trump on the ballot next year, it could spell trouble for Republicans. The redrawn 28th and 34th districts, which are 90 percent and 77 percent Latino respectively, backed Trump by more than 10 points last year. But Allred came within 0.2 points in the 28th and 2 points in the 34th. (In his 2022 gubernatorial bid, Beto O’Rourke would have won the 28th and lost the 34th by 1 point.)
The new 35th district, which includes part of Bexar County along with solidly-Republican areas east of San Antonio, is 53 percent Latino and supported Trump by 10 points and Cruz by just under 4 points.
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And don't forget that this is not just a CA thing. Because the GOP had already gerrymandered the hell out of their states and Democrats pushed for and enacted "fair maps", there are other "blue" states that can undo their "fair maps".
A number of seats that Democrats lost in 2022 were due to "fair maps" (notably in NY).
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