My theory: That 83% approval among Republicans is actually 83% of a shrinking number. When they extrapolate from samples, they make assumptions about the percentages in the population each group represents. The thing is, the percentage of Republicans has been declining quarter over quarter. I don't think pollsters are keeping up.
In other words, while the percentage approval among R's looks "stubborn" that percentage actually reflects fewer and fewer people. Conversely, the high percentage of disapproval among D's, even if it looks stable, actually represents more and more people.
Q1 2026 (ABC report of gallup numbers)
25% Republican
43% Independent
30% Democratic
Average across all quarters 2025 (Gallup)
27% Republican
45% Independent
27% Democratic
The difference from the average over 2025 my not look dramatic, but remember, when looked in the context of the past 23 years, you can see that the percentage of people who self-identify as Republicans has not been as low as it was in the first quarter of this year since 2013.
How dramatic the move is is seen very clearly when you add R+R leaning I's and D+D leaning I's.
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