But I until I hear my MAGA BIL has turned on him he’ll still have power over the neurolinguistically programmed and they can’t break away. Just like the Jim Jones cult members who share similarities to the 🍊🐖💩 supporters. ( sorry I just can’t write his name)

Somehow someone has managed to sneak into some of those layers that aren't reached by rationale thinking.

The blind partisan right will never abandon Trump.

My theory: That 83% approval among Republicans is actually 83% of a shrinking number. When they extrapolate from samples, they make assumptions about the percentages in the population each group represents. The thing is, the percentage of Republicans has been declining quarter over quarter. I don't think pollsters are keeping up.

In other words, while the percentage approval among R's looks "stubborn" that percentage actually reflects fewer and fewer people. Conversely, the high percentage of disapproval among D's, even if it looks stable, actually represents more and more people.

Q1 2026 (ABC report of gallup numbers)
25% Republican
43% Independent
30% Democratic

Average across all quarters 2025 (Gallup)
27% Republican
45% Independent
27% Democratic

The difference from the average over 2025 my not look dramatic, but remember, when looked in the context of the past 23 years, you can see that the percentage of people who self-identify as Republicans has not been as low as it was in the first quarter of this year since 2013.



How dramatic the move is is seen very clearly when you add R+R leaning I's and D+D leaning I's.

Exactly right. "Such and such percentage of Republicans still support Trump" is misleading when the number of people identifying as Republican is shrinking.

... the percentage of R's is bigger than it is.

The "gold standard" for party affiliation has long been gallup's annual number, which is released at the begining of each year based on interviews conducted over the course of the year.

It is tough to find quarterly numbers. They don't publish them -- at least not directly to the public that I can find. I was VERY surprised to see ABC's first quarter estimates from Gallup in that report.

I suspect they've been seeing a surprising downward trend since the felon took office. I think the first quarter numbers were reported because it has now become clear something "strange' is going on -- i.e., a big exodus. And it's been going on since the felon took office.

The thing is, i'm no expert, but it is my understanding that party affiliation is a very stable thing. It doesn't tend to change much within the same cohort. It does shift as young people are added and older people subtracted over longer periods of time.

So, if, on the assumption party affiliation is pretty stable, pollsters use the annual "gold standard" when they extrapolate from samples, rather than adjusting for every quarter, they are over-estimating his support because they are actually missing the "exodus."

But for about the last ten years I've seen/read people say that Trump's approval among Republicans is so high only because less people are staying Republican. That has yet to actually show up given gotten more votes every time he's run.

Granted midterms are different, but I am not convinced the GOP is really shrinking.

Between 2015 and the last quarter of 2024, the trend was up and down so anyone saying it was consistently down wasn't looking at numbers.

The consistent downward trend took off after Q4 2024. Since then it has been a steady downward trend for six quarters. At no point prior to that since 2016 has the trend been the same direction for that many quarters. I find that significant.




Sure, maybe we shouldn't get too excited until the gap between D+D leaning I's and R+R leaning I's hits 15 points (that is, a bigger gap than any time since 1991), but I see the current trend as quite significant -- and a good sign. And while the current D+D leaning I's isn't as high as in 2008, I also find it significant that the number of R+R leaning I's is at the same low level of 39% -- lowest since 1991 at least.

They may not have been looking at actual figures, but I've read it dozens of times through the years.

yes indeed

Still vote republican in red states in November, I bet most of them.

He has nothing to offer but reality-show dramatic stunts. He doesn't know how to do anything but stir shit.

He is a conman who people are losing confidence in.

We’re not even getting the bread.

Seems to be getting their attention, wait until the shortages hit. Maga who, what, I don’t know no maga. As they run inside to hide their maga merch.

stupid fucking morons

But this analysis means shit unless it's a few days before the election.
I'm not convinced the Reich Wing doesn't have the fix in for the midterms.

Is stealing their sheep.

And it took these people how many years to find out?

Often not soon enough.

He's getting just plain pathetic.

I saw a video of him giving a speech se
veral years ago and there isn't any comparison to him now. He had energy. Now he just wanders around abd his filter and judgement just aren't even there.

Stomp all over people's civil rights, gut government agencies that protect and serve all of us, kill Americans on the street in cold blood, and pilfer tax payer funding for personal gain.....get's little in the way of traction. But jack up their gas prices, not to mention their groceries, and they're fucking up in arms!!! I don't know whether to be happy or sad.

if the republicans retain control much longer.

The power of the billionaire-owned mass media propaganda is stunning and frightening.

Even if he gets the money, it won't slow him down.

the proposed elation that maga/pukepubs support is in ‘Absolute Collapse'. If this is collapse, I direct you to the significant victory of this regime’s achievements the past year and a half.

As a symbol of what collapse means?

I present to you when he was allowed to put his name beside and on buildings, build ballrooms, construct towering arches to his name and destroy our gleaming Whitehouse I knew any talk of collapse is the lie out of hell literally.

None of this matters unless we have (relatively) fair elections, and the numbers translate to removing sufficient fascists.

Now would be fine. Put it all behind you, Donnie!

in what beast of a world is that bad news?

I wouldn't be surprised to see even a few die-hard members of of fan club leadership in the legislatures begin to denounce him. Pump prices are not a theoretical concept nor a fictional anecdote to cover our narratives, but an occurrence we're forced to confront daily; and given the American proclivity to prioritize cash over conviction, I don't see this ending good for Mr. trump's base.

An absolute crash would require 90% the country to take their heads out of Trumps ass.
But they are all stuck in there so tight together that no one can pull out.