General Discussion

Democrats are looking pretty energized now. 2006 and 2018 are the more recent midterm elections where democrats excelled, since at that point in their terms both Bush and Trump had falling approval ratings.

Democrats picked up 31 seats in 2006 and 42 seats in 2018. On the other hand, Republicans gained over 60 seats in 2010 which was an absolute disaster.

The senate will be tougher but some races are looking even more encouraging. I think Dems gained 6 seats in 2006. Schumer, to his credit recruited some good candidates.

Biden’s approval rating wasn’t spectacular in 2022, but repealing Dobbs was a bit of a Black Swan event. Barring some major event, I don’t see Trump’s approval bumping up significantly before the midterms.