General Discussion

A single digit loss would represent a double digit swing in a Trump +22 district for a special election with low turnout.

Next November, the economy will be even worse, and voter discontent with the majority party even stronger. Newly gerrymandered districts that were +Trump by double digits but now only positive by single digits will be at risk, and former Dem districts that are now supposedly Republican districts can no longer be accurately assumed to be so.

Even with gerrymandering, the odds still favor Dems retaking the house.

That’s one of the main reasons so many republicans are declining to run for re-election- it’s no fun to be in the minority.