Sorry. Concepts of being competitive. We shouldn't hang our hats on pie in the sky. But ... we'll see if there is a Blue Surge!

We will see how many Tennesseans are enthusiastic about losing their food aid, their health insurance, their federal education dollars, their federal infrastructure grants.

We will see how many Tennesseans will turn out to vote for a higher retirement age, cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, small businesses going under because of tariffs, and a government run by Elon Musk's AI program.

A single digit loss would represent a double digit swing in a Trump +22 district for a special election with low turnout.

Next November, the economy will be even worse, and voter discontent with the majority party even stronger. Newly gerrymandered districts that were +Trump by double digits but now only positive by single digits will be at risk, and former Dem districts that are now supposedly Republican districts can no longer be accurately assumed to be so.

Even with gerrymandering, the odds still favor Dems retaking the house.

That’s one of the main reasons so many republicans are declining to run for re-election- it’s no fun to be in the minority.