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FBaggins

(28,604 posts)

4. There's no chance that it's zero or below

Reply to gab13by13 (Original post)

Tue Nov 25, 2025, 08:10 AM

Nov 25

I get the cynicism… but the initial estimates are too strong for it to be knocked down that much - particularly since the shutdown didn’t start until Q4 began. The GDPNOW estimate is actually over 4%

They also don’t cancel it… they bumped it back a couple weeks.

So perhaps the reality comes in well below expectations and he doesn’t want it to harm Black Friday shopping… but it can’t be negative