Buttigieg 2020

The most manifestly unfit, inexperienced candidate in history defeated perhaps the most qualified candidate in history. Perhaps we could dismiss it as a fluke, but in 2018, an unknown AOC did it again against a much more experienced opponent, and immediately became one of the most well known Representatives on the Hill. They did it partly by being unconventional candidates running unconventional campaigns. Also, they correctly understood who their voters were and why they could win. They understood what smarter, more experienced candidates and pundits did not.

So I walked away with several lessons. One is that experience is irrelevant in a time of change. The old rules don't count anymore. The winner is the one who understands the new rules best. The new rules are all about controlling the media narrative. Make yourself irresistible on TV and on Twitter, and they will come. It doesn't matter if you are loved or hated, as long as you can get attention and make the media want to cover you. That's power in today's world.

The second lesson is that it is time for a new Democratic coalition. Both major parties are coalitions. Republicans are basically a coalition of social conservatives and economic conservatives. Trump added some white working class Democrats to the coalition by promising jobs and departing from free trade orthodoxy and won. But they aren't satisfied with him, which means a new Democratic coalition can get them back.

The candidate who understand these things best will win. And I believe Pete is that candidate. In terms of media narratives, he's created one out of almost nothing. O'Rourke did it before him, and Sanders did it in 2016, but it wasn't a conscious plan. O'Rourke knew he could attract attention by driving around and sounding inspirational. But he didn't have much beyond that. Sanders was always a dissatisfied crank who happened to have the right personality for 2016. But not for 2020.

Pete has used a conscious media strategy designed to get himself coverage. People think this is some kind of fluke, but it's not. He used the same strategies that professional publicists use to get coverage for sleeper movie hits with unknown actors. Trump uses some of these strategies as well.

Pete is also consciously building a new coalition that will include traditional Democrats plus some former conservatives who don't like Trump, or aren't happy with conservative orthodoxy anymore. It will also include dissatisfied evangelicals, who believe in the old Social Gospel. Every other candidate (except Booker) has written them off, but not Pete. The Social Gospel is dormant, not dead. He plans to wake it up. The religious right is freaking out because they are afraid that he will. They know the power of the Social Gospel, even if most DUers don't.

Pete's biggest weakness is African Americans. They may not trust him. But based on what I've seen so far, he has a plan for dealing with that. My prediction is that if he can get enough AA votes, he wins the primaries and easily defeats Trump.