Democratic Primaries

I can so see 3 or of the most conservative Dems peeling off. But as it stands we need 60, and in my wildest projections, it will be many cycles before we cna (if we ever do) get near to that level. Jones in alabama was a complete fluke, due to Paedo Moore winning the Rethug primary, and 2018 being a Blue wave. Even in that Blue Wave we lost good, solid Dems to Rethugs in IN, MO, ND, and FL. Those 4 flips KILLED us (we would have a 51-49 majority if they had not occurred) and is now killing the nation.

I actually do think we can flip SIX (out of 13 remotely flippable) Red seats Blue, and then, even though we will 90% likely lose Jones, we will have a 52-48 majority. But, alas, we need 60 and even if we flipped ALL 13 (we will still lose Jones) that leaves us 1 short (we would have 59), and even then we will have defections I truly fear.


Here is my completely up to date, most detailed outline on the state of the 2020 Senate races.

We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to a 51-49 Dem advantage (so no power sharing agreements needed at all) as it stands, and a plus 5 net if we lose Doug Jones, which is, unfortunately likely as Paedo Moore was crushed in the Rethug Primary, and I fear either Tuberville (probably the favourite to win the Rethug run-off) or Sessions will win.

We should absolute hold all our other seats. Jeanne Shaheen in NH is the only one that is probably not a 90+% lock, with the Rethugs choosing between Kelly Ayotte (the one who worries me the most if she decides to run), previously a NH US Senator until she barely lost in 2016 to Maggie Hassan by 1017 votes, Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army brigadier general, Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. Senator and former Attorney General of New Hampshire, Scott 'Pickup' Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and 2014 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire.

These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 13 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 10 of the 13 seats have all refused, so far, to run.

These are the only 3 states ATM with our strongest possible (strongest from the beginning, but some still have really good candidates like NC, IA, and ME) candidates running:

Arizona Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This was (until Hickenlooper got smart) the only state so far that we had the best potential candidate already running.

Colorado Hickenlooper now running makes it 90-95% that we flip this. Even if you do not think he is the best on policy, he still is the most electable. All I ask is that he knocks it off with the red-baiting (saying progressives are bringing back Stalin and Marx's policies), which is asinine and plays into the Rethug's hands. I would much prefer Joe Neguse or Andrew Romanoff to Hickenlooper strictly on policy.

Montana Bullock finally decided to run, and he gives us a great chance to flip this Blue.


Now the ones who do NOT have our strongest candidates running as of yet (an again ME, IA, and NC are in pretty good shape, I just include them for historical completeness):


Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator there, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind.) If Begich ends up completely declining, then it will probably up to Independent Al Gross, as Ethan Berkowitz, mayor of Anchorage, and Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage assemblyman and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2014 have both also declined. If no Begich, this is a hard one to win.

Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out the POS hypocrite Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another great one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm, I think Gideon can take out Collins, just was more sure on Rice, but she is not going to run.).

Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw (yes the superstar singer, who said for years he would run when he was 50, and he is 52 now) reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or pretty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and especially James Mackler)

Georgia With Isakson retiring (there will be an interim Repug appointed for the last year) There are now TWO seats we can flip. Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue and Rethug X, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. Jon Ossoff has now declared for David Perdue's seat, as have Teresa Tomlinson, and Sarah Riggs Amico.

In the other race, the Special Election, we REALLY need Sally Yates to change her mind, as so far we have no really strong candidates there, and it deffo is winnable as the Rethugs have a NASTY fight on their hands, between White Power Barbie Kelly Loeffler (currently sitting) and then Trump arse-licker uber scum, Doug Collins. So far the Dems who have declared are Matt Lieberman, businessman and son of Joe Lieberman, former U.S. Senator from Connecticut, Ed Tarver, former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Georgia and former state senator, Raphael Warnock, reverend and pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, and Richard Dien Winfield, professor and candidate for Georgia's 10th congressional district in 2018.

Kansas Open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, and that is Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances This is a carbon copy of Montana, just swap in Sebelius for Bullock, its a Red state and all the insiders say she is only Dem who can win. Sebelius needs to follow Bullocks' lead and jump in!!!

Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat the detestable Joni Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope Theresa Greenfield will be the Dem winner and has a great shot at beating the POS Ernst) Chet Culver (not declared) also has a decent shot, but my money is on Greenfield.

North Carolina Our two best candidates, Foxx and Stein, both said no, and Cal Cunningham (not a bad candidate at all, I do NOT want to seem to be tossing shade) is now our nominee. I still think he can beat the really weak Tillis, who is very unpopular there.

now the two wishful thinking states:

Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he ran (and won!!!) the Governorship. Amy McGrath is who we are probably going to have to roll with, and it is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredesen in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.)

Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity. I like Amanda Edwards A LOT, but she lost in the Primary, so now it is a runoff between MJ Hegar and Royce West. I think Hegar wins the runoff, but this is truly a stretch, no matter who is our nominee.

I am going to give up on pulling the people who I think are strongest in ME, IA, (those two I can be happy with who we have) NC, (already decided, it is Cal Cunningham, who is strong anyway) TX, GA, (the regular one, as zero chance Stacey Abrams will run now) and KY. We just have to roll with who we have there now. AZ, CO and MT (yay!) now have our best (from the very beginning) possible, so that leaves:


AK (Begich run!)
TN (McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
GA (Special election) (Yates run!)


IF all those 4 above change their minds and run, I can say, with at least 60% or more confidence, we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets crushed, win as many as 9 or 10.

COVID-19 is a super wild card, so it makes prognostication so so tricky.