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judeling

(1,086 posts)
1. It wont be as sharp as 2008 but it will last longer.
Sun Mar 22, 2020, 10:10 AM
Mar 2020

Because this is an election year the response is much quicker and will be bigger and better thought out.
Because this is a consumer facing downturn the injection of cash will mitigate the problems better.
Because of the nature of the virus and its and the rolling nature of the infections the period of downturn will be longer.

We can look at China and see the future. While it appears that China has gotten past the peak, they are still in a massive lockdown. Schools in urban centers remain closed intensive monitoring remains, social distancing is in place even if relaxed a touch. After a massive initial shock even with government support industry is only returning to at most 80% of what it was ad their entire small business sector is I extreme distress. They have had to choke down on incoming goods and people to prevent incoming possible vectors.

This will be true across the world. Flattening the curve extends the time. Until a vaccine and herd immunity kicks in economic activity will remain depressed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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