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Democratic Primaries

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MineralMan

(149,487 posts)
Thu Mar 12, 2020, 10:58 AM Mar 2020

What about Delegates Pledged to Candidates Who Have Withdrawn? [View all]

Here's a list of such candidates and the current number of their pledged delegates:

Elizabeth Warren - 79
Mike Bloomberg - 53
Pete Buttigieg - 26
Amy Klobuchar - 7

Those numbers are unlikely to change now, since none of those non-running candidates will earn enough votes to have additional delegates allocated to them.

Depending on the details of the rules adopted at the convention, the 165 delegates pledged to those candidates might be able to vote as they choose on the first ballot, since none of those candidates are likely to be nominated at the convention. If so, I think the delegates pledged to Warren would probably split between Biden and Sanders. The others, however, are pledged to candidates who have endorsed Joe Biden, so they'd probably vote for Biden, with few exceptions.

If a candidate is just short of having a majority of all delegates, that could be enough to tip that candidate over the majority. If not, a second ballot would be held. In a second ballot, the unpledged delegates, sometimes called super delegates would add their 774 votes on that second ballot. Since they are all long-time Democrats, either elected members of congress, Senators, Governors, etc, it's likely that a large majority of those unpledged delegates would vote for Joe Biden, and take him well over the majority of delegates needed for the nomination.

In my opinion, if the primary elections go as they seem to be going, Joe Biden will either have a majority of delegates on the first vote or be very close to that. Either way, he is almost certain to be our Democratic nominee for President. I don't see any path to that for Bernie Sanders, based on current election trends.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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