Democratic Primaries

Still In Wisconsin

(4,450 posts)

14. I'm starting to think that beating Trump looks pretty unlikely.

Wed Feb 5, 2020, 05:34 PM

Feb 2020

Reason: I believe Biden will be trounced by Bernie in New Hampshire, then once the race gets to states where Biden should be strongest, he will be an afterthought. I could be wrong. But if I'm not... I really can't see Mayor Pete or Warren beating Trump. Klobuchar is already too far back. Sanders vs. Trump would be a bloodbath in favor of Trump. I'm one who has believed for a long time that Biden's our best bet, but he's just not generating any excitement among anyone. It doesn't look like the "safe choice" is what primary voters want. We will see, obviously.

But the Senate is another story. I can see several scenarios where Trump wins the Presidency again but Republicans lose the Senate. That would be hugely important, if for no other reason than to take away the Republicans' ability to use the "nuclear option" to ram judges through.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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There's not going to be a 'revolution' at the voting booth for Bernie [View all] Lexblues Feb 2020 OP

Got HALF the votes he got last time. So you are clearly right. Squinch Feb 2020 #1

You do realize that "last time" was a two person race. Cuthbert Allgood Feb 2020 #2

Yes. And BS lost half of his Iowa votes to the new guys. He needs more this time, not fewer. Squinch Feb 2020 #7

pssst. It's a distraction. bluewater Feb 2020 #8

No. It's simply a statement of fact. If it distracts you from being happy about Joe's showing, Squinch Feb 2020 #12

That doesn't account for the flat turnout relative to 2016 HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #19

Doesn't matter. Half his 16 voters chose "another". Blue_true Feb 2020 #45

And yet Sanders clobbered Biden in Iowa !!1!!1! bluewater Feb 2020 #4

Doesn't change that half his 2016 voters abandoned him. But I guess that isn't something Squinch Feb 2020 #15

It does seem meaningless. Like comparing apples and oranges. bluewater Feb 2020 #21

You seem to need to talk about Joe. I haven't brought him up. Joe's showing is not Squinch Feb 2020 #22

As the field NARROWS, everyone's support goes back up. bluewater Feb 2020 #24

Sure. Half your voters have decided they don't want to vote for you any more. Total victory. Squinch Feb 2020 #25

lol I think someone might be pulling my leg now. bluewater Feb 2020 #26

I dig how you move the goalposts so quickly and without shame. LanternWaste Feb 2020 #69

An observation bluewater Feb 2020 #71

I don't. Cha Feb 2020 #83

Give it to you, bernie lost half of his support ChubbyStar Feb 2020 #28

You guys keep saying that. But it doesn't change the fact that BS lost half his support. Squinch Feb 2020 #30

Sorry fourth place Joe is stll in fourth place ChubbyStar Feb 2020 #32

Wow. I guess any raft to cling to. When your candidate loses half his support. Squinch Feb 2020 #33

He beat Joe ChubbyStar Feb 2020 #35

Actually, BS support likes caucus. Biden's support don't participate in caucus. krissey Feb 2020 #42

And Pete beat Sanders. nt Blue_true Feb 2020 #46

Has he yet? I don't think any results are finalized. bluewater Feb 2020 #47

Pete's chances of winning were at 82% and change today, Blue_true Feb 2020 #48

So Pete has not beat Sanders as of now. OK. Thanks. bluewater Feb 2020 #51

The probability is that Pete will beat Bernie in the final count. nt Blue_true Feb 2020 #53

Uh huh. Time will tell. bluewater Feb 2020 #55

I thought that Warren was supposed to have the best organization in Iowa TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #64

Warren's widespread organization saved her from a Biden-like disaster bluewater Feb 2020 #65

I don't believe that Biden needs to outperform Buttigieg in New Hampshire. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #66

Interesting points. bluewater Feb 2020 #67

Boy, just how dense does one have to be to not understand the main point. Pololv Feb 2020 #57

The post you replied to said this ChubbyStar Feb 2020 #58

My main point is that no one has won Iowa yet. bluewater Feb 2020 #60

The main truth of this OP is that bernie DID lose half his support. Pololv Feb 2020 #62

the thing is Nikki28 Feb 2020 #3

I didn't hear about Trumpers trapping voters. And I think it's probably bullshit. Care to Squinch Feb 2020 #13

Amen texasfiddler Feb 2020 #5

Youth turnout in Iowa was up to 27%, from 18% in 2016 Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #6

Interesting, I hadn't seen the demographics. Is the raw # up? JudyM Feb 2020 #34

Those are SteveKornacki's numbers from NBC's entrance polls Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #39

I think we would have seen it in Iowa HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #9

We can't afford to overlook any potential voter Kaiserguy Feb 2020 #10

I'm starting to think that beating Trump looks pretty unlikely. Still In Wisconsin Feb 2020 #14

Good analysis Cornell Engineer Feb 2020 #37

I believe Biden is still our best bet. And until Iowa, he had a great chance. Unfortunately, Iowa, emmaverybo Feb 2020 #102

In my opinion, if we nominate Bernie, Trump will win with somewhere around 350 electoral votes. Still In Wisconsin Feb 2020 #11

Thank you for pointing this out! texasfiddler Feb 2020 #16

In My Opinion people Feb 2020 #20

I don't think I'll base my one chance to get rid of Filthy Donny on your opinion. Squinch Feb 2020 #23

As long as you don't expect your opinion to matter to anyone else either, that's fine. Kentonio Feb 2020 #85

Sanders supporters? No. I don't expect them to be influenced by anything but their own opinions. Squinch Feb 2020 #88

Maybe check a mirror Kentonio Feb 2020 #89

Ahh! The "I know you are but what am I" defense! Interesting choice. Squinch Feb 2020 #90

No, more just tired of you being hostile and rude to people Kentonio Feb 2020 #91

Got it. My stating an opinion is rude and hostile. You or the Squinch Feb 2020 #92

My opinions are always up for questioning. Kentonio Feb 2020 #93

Lol! "Not trying to attack you." If that is the case you need to Squinch Feb 2020 #94

I have a feeling that you get the last word. NurseJackie Feb 2020 #95

SMDH. Can't make this stuff up. Squinch Feb 2020 #96

Oh! But I see what you mean! How did that happen? Squinch Feb 2020 #97

I don't know... I just say "Thank ya Jesus" and move on! NurseJackie Feb 2020 #99

You made me smile. Squinch Feb 2020 #100

What are you basing your opinion on? "Facts" that you read around here? Sanders beats trump JudyM Feb 2020 #36

What matters is individual states, not popular vote totals. This should be obvious now. Still In Wisconsin Feb 2020 #38

Sanders wins MI and probably WI. He took both states last time around & trump won there because of JudyM Feb 2020 #40

No, Sanders won the DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY in Wisconsin. Still In Wisconsin Feb 2020 #54

I don't know if that argument holds up. JudyM Feb 2020 #63

In a two person race Bettie Feb 2020 #17

We saw all this before with Nader.... ehrnst Feb 2020 #18

Rove funded Nader Gothmog Feb 2020 #50

thank you for that, Goth Cha Feb 2020 #80

IF bernie wanted a 'Revolution' he would have done this in his youth..Dear Gawd how long... samnsara Feb 2020 #27

+1000. ehrnst Feb 2020 #41

More important than his vote total from Iowa. lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #29

Exactly...there's no revolution at the ballot box Lexblues Feb 2020 #43

Exactly. Cha Feb 2020 #61

The youth vote in Iowa was way up on 2016. Kentonio Feb 2020 #86

The total vote was not uponit7771 Feb 2020 #112

Yep, even if Bernie eeks out a win in Iowa, he lost. Pete won in Iowa nt SunSeeker Feb 2020 #31

It was supposed to be magic revolution, not the regular raggedy running about kind, but magic. Scurrilous Feb 2020 #44

This makes me smile Gothmog Feb 2020 #52

I have questionsw about this magical voter revolution Gothmog Feb 2020 #49

I'm just not worried about it, frankly. Laelth Feb 2020 #56

It's one thing to show up at college after class and meet your friends but quite another to go to a UniteFightBack Feb 2020 #59

We all, myself included, need to practice patience Tweedy Feb 2020 #68

Turnout was flat relative to 2016 HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #70

No. That is yesterday's rush to news Tweedy Feb 2020 #72

LOL Three thousand more over 2016 is not significant HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #73

Where did you get that number? Tweedy Feb 2020 #75

How many primaries let registered repubs vote? flamingdem Feb 2020 #74

When I ask serious Bernie supporters who are our students if they are registered. redstatebluegirl Feb 2020 #76

Sanders equal MFM008 Feb 2020 #77

+1 oasis Feb 2020 #78

Have read Rick Wilson's new book ? That's exactly what he said, in fact IIRC, he said the high point OnDoutside Feb 2020 #79

Iowa turnout declined which means no voter revolution Gothmog Feb 2020 #81

No it didn't. Kentonio Feb 2020 #87

Yet vastly lower than 2008 AncientGeezer Feb 2020 #104

This claim was fact checked and found to be sanders spin i.e., not true Gothmog Feb 2020 #105

KICK Cha Feb 2020 #82

K&R betsuni Feb 2020 #84

I think it's clear that there is even more support for Bernie than in 2016. Malmsy Feb 2020 #98

18 to 29 y.o. turnout is up 79% since 2014. Kurt V. Feb 2020 #101

The truth is, you have no evidence to support your fear based hypothesis Fiendish Thingy Feb 2020 #103

FactCheck Posts- Sanders Spins Young Voter Turnout in Iowa Gothmog Feb 2020 #106

Sanders does not have a magic wand Gothmog Feb 2020 #107

No, radical policies won't drive election-winning turnout Gothmog Feb 2020 #108

Sanders would kill down ballot candidates Gothmog Feb 2020 #109

Where is sanders' magical voter revolution?? Gothmog Feb 2020 #110

K&R, there's no evidence Sanders or Bloomberg has swing state appeal uponit7771 Feb 2020 #111