2016 Postmortem

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)

20. The 538 analysis is based on actual polling data.

Thu Jan 5, 2017, 03:43 PM

Jan 2017

If you're "not buying it" based on your gut feelings or anecdotal observations of rallies, and if you regard those sources as more reliable than exit polls, then that's where you and I disagree.

You should also note that the section of the 538 article that you refer to isn't talking about black voters. It's talking about young black voters. The passage states:

More harmful for Clinton was which young voters stayed home: minorities. Among white voters, voters 18-29 years old made up 30 percent of voters who did not participate in the November election. Among young Hispanic voters, that climbs to 43 percent. Among young black voters, it was an even higher 46 percent.

This isn't blaming AAs generally, since it would follow from these data that older black voters who didn't vote would be a lower percentage of those who stayed home.

As for support for Sanders, it's true that Clinton beat him among blacks as a whole. The argument made by 538, however, is in the context of younger voters. It's based on exit poll data showing that Sanders, who generally beat Clinton among younger voters, even beat her among younger black voters:

But an analysis of 25 states that held primaries and where exit polls were conducted by NBC News showed that one of Sanders' challenges is that younger blacks are not voting in large numbers. Sanders, according to the exit polls in these states, received 52 percent of the votes of African-Americans under 30, compared to 47 percent for Clinton.

(from "Huge Split Between Older and Younger Blacks in the Democratic Primary" (emphasis added))

That's a plausible basis for suggesting one factor in the actual outcome: Younger black voters were less likely to be inspired by Clinton's candidacy and were therefore less likely to vote.

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Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton The Election [View all] portlander23 Jan 2017 OP

Stay at homes .......? suston96 Jan 2017 #1

Yup. I know 4 or 5 passionate Sanders supporters who stayed home. lamp_shade Jan 2017 #2

Please slap them all in the face with a dead trout for me... Blue_Tires Jan 2017 #12

They're all family... all very young adults... probably not even registered to vote. lamp_shade Jan 2017 #22

Election losses in this country are often sharp_stick Jan 2017 #3

Comey cast more doubt and many people just gave up and stayed home. riversedge Jan 2017 #4

Nah! Not buying it. brush Jan 2017 #5

The 538 analysis is based on actual polling data. Jim Lane Jan 2017 #20

How do you exit poll non-voters? brush Jan 2017 #21

You're confusing two different concepts Jim Lane Jan 2017 #24

++++ NO !!!! ++++ Clinton got nearly as many votes as 2012 Obama !!! uponit7771 Jan 2017 #6

True, but the population of registered voters increases each year as well karynnj Jan 2017 #18

Thanks for nothing, stay-at-homes. (nt) Paladin Jan 2017 #7

Ok. So why do those of us who are angry at Bernie for attacking her get shit for that? kcr Jan 2017 #8

Because it makes the assumption.... vi5 Jan 2017 #10

Nothing in this says that they would have been motivated to vote for HRC had there been no primary karynnj Jan 2017 #19

Agreed. Never again let a non-Dem with no allegiance to the party run as a Dem brush Jan 2017 #23

I hope the DNC implements this policy liquid diamond Jan 2017 #43

Yes! brush Jan 2017 #44

Yeah... that's a great solution kenfrequed Jan 2017 #47

You and your types liquid diamond Jan 2017 #49

"My types"? kenfrequed Jan 2017 #63

Well said! LiberalLovinLug Jan 2017 #77

Perfect example of our losing strategy. HassleCat Jan 2017 #76

Post removed Post removed Jan 2017 #62

Your concern is noted hueymahl Jan 2017 #72

Agreed HRC2020 Jan 2017 #57

CNNventional wisdom that's been kicked to the curb daily for two months. nt ucrdem Jan 2017 #9

It is Politics 101 earthside Jan 2017 #11

who the fuck has to be inspired to vote . keeping trump out of the white house wasnt inspiring Ohioblue22 Jan 2017 #15

Being registered to vote and subsequently voting should be inspiring enough. Iggo Jan 2017 #29

they take it for granted Ohioblue22 Jan 2017 #30

Only a narcissist has to be "inspired to vote" - especially with Trump as the alternative. yardwork Jan 2017 #50

BernieBro eom HRC2020 Jan 2017 #59

Well, I hope they ellie Jan 2017 #13

Peer Pressure Is A Powerful Tool otohara Jan 2017 #14

Those assholes will get theirs. liquid diamond Jan 2017 #45

This really isn't true, and blaming it on "minorities" makes it worse. ucrdem Jan 2017 #16

You are using two different numbers. kenfrequed Jan 2017 #48

Clinton and the DNC did not help themselves, but they still should have been able to beat Trump, and JCanete Jan 2017 #17

Clinton just didn't inspire the young voters as seen by these numbers. jalan48 Jan 2017 #25

The young voters that BS "inspired" couldn't be bothered to come out and vote for BS SFnomad Jan 2017 #34

Let's face it-Hillary as inspirational wasn't happening. jalan48 Jan 2017 #35

And that isn't why she lost. If that's all it took, BS would have won the primary SFnomad Jan 2017 #38

Given how late he started and with no money-it's anybody's guess. jalan48 Jan 2017 #39

FFS, you people sure do have one excuse after another #smh SFnomad Jan 2017 #42

Hillary Inspired Millions of Young Women.. I know a lot of BS fans Cha Jan 2017 #51

Yeah, maybe next time we'll put country above ego? Just a reminder; JTFrog Jan 2017 #58

I guess you need to tell that to the people who didn't vote or are we still blaming the voters? jalan48 Jan 2017 #60

Because we had a spoiler drumming up division. Not really that hard to pinpoint. nt JTFrog Jan 2017 #61

Take a look at the candidate's favorability ratings. jalan48 Jan 2017 #64

It wasn't close. She won by 3 million votes. JTFrog Jan 2017 #65

If she won by 3 million votes why isn't she the President then? jalan48 Jan 2017 #66

Russia. Comey. GOP. Duh. nt JTFrog Jan 2017 #67

Russia, Comey and the GOP made voters stay home? Wow! It's hopeless then. jalan48 Jan 2017 #68

Fake news and hacking from Russia. Division from the spoiler. Comey and his fake announcement. JTFrog Jan 2017 #69

It's everyone else's fault is the message then. Got it. jalan48 Jan 2017 #70

Whatever helps you sleep at night. nt JTFrog Jan 2017 #71

Victim-hood is a losing mindset. It will only lead to more losses. jalan48 Jan 2017 #74

Yes, because ignoring all of the things that actually happened is a winning strategy. JTFrog Jan 2017 #75

Which begs the question of why that 41% did not vote. guillaumeb Jan 2017 #26

I stayed home that day. TonyPDX Jan 2017 #27

Registered voters who stayed home are fucking morons. Iggo Jan 2017 #28

They will have blood on their hands mcar Jan 2017 #31

"The biggest reason given by non-voters for staying home was that they didnt like the candidates." andym Jan 2017 #32

She had a 3 million vote lead over Trump. Rex Jan 2017 #33

They cost us dearly. Not Clinton. NCTraveler Jan 2017 #36

Clear support for candidates was low so why didn't DNC get a candidate who could garner more? snowy owl Jan 2017 #37

The voters of the Democratic Party picked Clinton, and by a wide margin at that. StevieM Jan 2017 #52

But, But They at Least Preserved Their Ideological Purity Hum Jan 2017 #40

Does this include voters who wanted/tried to vote but were prevented from doing so by suppression EffieBlack Jan 2017 #41

and RUSSIA? LaydeeBug Jan 2017 #46

Flagged for Review? You Better Believe it! FSogol Jan 2017 #53

Like all things, way too late. JTFrog Jan 2017 #55

Yep I sit next to a Sanders supporter jzodda Jan 2017 #54

There's not really any single cause. Orsino Jan 2017 #56

Reason 5,236 from the North West. NCTraveler Jan 2017 #73

So whether you hate Sanders or love Sanders, its agreed he would have won. LiberalLovinLug Jan 2017 #78