2016 Postmortem

Hassin Bin Sober

(27,156 posts)

16. Hmm. That's the same response I got when I posted that Silver was warning...

Tue Dec 20, 2016, 03:06 PM

Dec 2016

... the Clinton margin could disappear with a slight polling mistake. Silver warned it wasn't in the bag.

'Fuck Nate Silver, he just wants a horse race!!! Sam Wang has it at 99%'

Or words to that effect.

I think too many people got caught up with the big 65/35 number on Clinton's side and confused it with a polling number when it was really "odds" or chances of winning.

I think he even said something about the numbers being great odds for betting on a game but not so much when the fate of our country is at stake.

What really hit home was he gave Trump the same Chance as the Cubs winning the series. *gulp*

Like everybody else, I got caught up with the "in the bag" feelings. But when I read Silver's warnings and I started looking at the margins in the battleground states, I got that sinking feeling I had in 2004. About a week before the 2004 election, I read about all the anti gay marriage legislation the repigs put on the ballots around the country and I thought "uh oh"

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538: Voters really did switch to Trump at the last minute [View all] pnwmom Dec 2016 OP

I dont understand all the verbiosity - how does that explain exit polls being so far off in those Kashkakat v.2.0 Dec 2016 #1

A few days before the election, there were still large numbers of undecideds. pnwmom Dec 2016 #2

That doesn't explain the exit poll 'phenomena'. triron Dec 2016 #4

I think we need to accept that exit polls are now fundamentally flawed. LonePirate Dec 2016 #14

Please read Ron Baiman's paper. triron Dec 2016 #19

It's certainly possible (likely?) that both election fraud occurs and exit polls are flawed. LonePirate Dec 2016 #26

The assumptions made triron Dec 2016 #30

The problem is self selection Yupster Dec 2016 #39

Baiman's paper is worthless because he doesn't understand the flaws of exit polling mythology Dec 2016 #43

Uh, no. You got it bass ackwards. First we get the secure, verifiable voting system Kashkakat v.2.0 Dec 2016 #32

Yes, your sequence is how it should be but people are performing it in reverse now. LonePirate Dec 2016 #34

I think you got it right triron Dec 2016 #40

When States like Florida forthemiddle Dec 2016 #35

Exit polls included a weighted component of early voters calculated through a pre-election poll. BzaDem Dec 2016 #38

Wonder about this as well. triron Dec 2016 #41

It doesn't. They weren't. nt jmg257 Dec 2016 #17

The exit polls weren't off. mythology Dec 2016 #22

Exit polls aren't true samples. They do not contact (much less get a response) Yo_Mama Dec 2016 #23

Fuck 538. They got it wrong, this is an attempt to save face realmirage Dec 2016 #3

Polls cannot measure last minute changes in mind because the polling pnwmom Dec 2016 #5

And there were a lot of undecideds this year. Ace Rothstein Dec 2016 #31

Actually, they were "getting" it right zipplewrath Dec 2016 #6

Nate does not just poll HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #11

He doesn't do polling. He bases his predictions on other people's polls and uses Guy Whitey Corngood Dec 2016 #20

Getting it right at the end of Election Day is meaningless HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #13

Statistical flaw zipplewrath Dec 2016 #28

Who got it right? Renew Deal Dec 2016 #8

Hmm. That's the same response I got when I posted that Silver was warning... Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2016 #16

Nate Silver was one of the few prognisticators who warned about... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #42

Some did, no doubt, just not enough to mean anything. ucrdem Dec 2016 #7

The evidence says otherwise. DT's win in key swing states was so narrow -- pnwmom Dec 2016 #10

Not really. In WI he won by 1 point, but he leapt from 40 to 48 points to do it: ucrdem Dec 2016 #15

So? If the Comey bombs hadn't been dropped his leap wouldn't have been that big. n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #36

If anyone switched to Trump at the last minute mtnsnake Dec 2016 #9

Yes, but supposedly Nate's polls predict this HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #12

Polling indicated how quickly the electorate was to switch at any miniscule piece of non-information Tiggeroshii Dec 2016 #18

So Comey's unethical behavior handed the election to Trump. yardwork Dec 2016 #21

Comey is responsible for any disaster Trump brings on our nation/planet. oasis Dec 2016 #24

Because they got the permission slip from Comey Dem2 Dec 2016 #25

Private server was her achilles heel. hollowdweller Dec 2016 #27

We can't just believe her? yallerdawg Dec 2016 #33

COMEY did it. Justice Dec 2016 #29

This defies all common sense and human nature Generator Dec 2016 #37