2016 Postmortem

spooky3

(37,770 posts)

26. But his margin in 2012 narrowed despite his being young, cool, etc. A YUGE factor in 2008

Wed Dec 14, 2016, 11:20 PM

Dec 2016

that differed from 2016 was that the economy was in horrible shape and getting worse.

A second factor was that Obama was in the opposition party to that of the White House. In 2016, Clinton was running as a member of the same party as a two term incumbent. According to Lichtman (the political scientist whose model predicted a Trump win this year), history shows that that factor historically predicts election outcomes (independent of other factors).

"Inspiring" is a very subjective factor and Clinton was certainly "inspiring" in many ways to women and other groups.

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Youth vote 2008: 66% for Obama / Youth vote 2016 55% for Hillary [View all] Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 OP

The primary! hrmjustin Dec 2016 #1

Exactly. yallerdawg Dec 2016 #2

2008 or 2016? dogman Dec 2016 #3

2016 hrmjustin Dec 2016 #10

Odd since that is the Primary she won. dogman Dec 2016 #14

On this we disagree! hrmjustin Dec 2016 #16

wonder what the exit polls showed? triron Dec 2016 #4

Nor did he have too many primary candidates tearing him down at every turn uponit7771 Dec 2016 #11

3 AM hellofromreddit Dec 2016 #32

perhaps the first stat is one of the main reasons for the second JustinL Dec 2016 #5

The answer is right there in your first sentence. mtnsnake Dec 2016 #6

Looks like difference was in youth vote going to 3rd party candidates triron Dec 2016 #7

2008 anomoly ... what were the 2012 numbers? tia uponit7771 Dec 2016 #8

67% Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #9

Yes, but the AARP cover-model standard did work for Sanders. lapucelle Dec 2016 #19

Romney was literally a stock photo of "Rich White Man in His 60s" Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #22

I saw a round table discussion with a group of first graders concernig the candidates. lapucelle Dec 2016 #23

Even though their policy positions are basically the same, Clinton is... Garrett78 Dec 2016 #12

very good points. spooky3 Dec 2016 #28

Obama was everything Hillary wasn't. Kotya Dec 2016 #13

Sanders would've broke a hip, but Hillary could've really done to invoke those "identity politics" Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #17

But his margin in 2012 narrowed despite his being young, cool, etc. A YUGE factor in 2008 spooky3 Dec 2016 #26

wonder how much triron Dec 2016 #15

Well, for starters, they spent their whole lives in a bubble of anti-Clinton foam... JHB Dec 2016 #18

Excellent points triron Dec 2016 #20

Agree. spooky3 Dec 2016 #27

I think the real damage came from those in the progressive wing lapucelle Dec 2016 #21

And heard her speak against same-sex marriage and pot legalization. n/t PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #36

South Park wasn't exactly pro-tRump either pstokely Dec 2016 #24

it humanized him to a degree Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #25

Mr Garrison isn't supposed to beloved pstokely Dec 2016 #29

Do you have a link? ucrdem Dec 2016 #30

If only she endorsed marijuana legalization. n/t PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #31

+1000 Eom Arazi Dec 2016 #35

do stoners even come out and vote if weed legalization isn't on the ballot? pstokely Dec 2016 #37

The sad part is that she was a campus rock star while she was SoS. SaschaHM Dec 2016 #33

didn't hurt in 2008 pstokely Dec 2016 #38

HRC waited for about 3 days to get on board after losing the last primary... SaschaHM Dec 2016 #40

you nailed it in your first sentence. there is nothing else. nt TheFrenchRazor Dec 2016 #34

Samantha Bee's funny explanation... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #39

LOL, oh dear, MUCH shade! Chitown Kev Dec 2016 #41