Foreign Affairs

Russians threatened to use nukes in Afghanistan. They lost, left, and they didn't use nukes. The Russians threatened to use nukes in Europe if they lost. The Berlin wall went down, the Russians pulled out of East Germany and thru Poland. They didn't launch nukes. They were driven out of Chechnya in the first Chechen war and despite threats, they didn't use nukes.

Presently, Ukraine has neutralized about half of Russia's Strategic Bomber fleet. Most of their ICBMs from the 80s don't launch from silos, they have to be pulled out and launched from rail cars or specialized launch vehicles and they are constantly monitored by US and NATO satellites. Any movement or attempt to prepare for launch would invite preemptive launches of US (Maybe not with Krasnov or Vance in office) but definitely Finland anti-ICBM defenses. Their newer rockets are still land based. Their sub launched missiles are their biggest threat and modern satellite and naval drone technology has provided all of NATO and Ukraine with the means to monitor their entire fleet which from what we know about the serviceability of the current Russian navy, how many ships are currently mission capable? Even without the US, the other NATO countries have more economic and industrial resources than Russia which had an economy smaller than Italy even before the war and the sanctions.

Basically, they know they can't win so they try to hold on to the slice of the Donbas they still control while attacking civilian infrastructure to put pressure on Ukraine to give up. If they ever used nukes they would be bombed into oblivion. They would lose every ship and strategic aircraft they currently have within hours after launch. Then every sub would be found and destroyed. Their only aircraft carrier would be gone. And, all of their shipbuilding and aircraft manufacture/maintenance facilities would be destroyed.

They're already running out of troops because they won't commit the troops and newer tanks of the interior ministry to Ukraine like they did in Chechnya and they can't get anyone to enlist. They can't even get any more North Koreans or Africans. They also know the risk of internal revolt is high and getting worse.

Because Trump keeps trying to self deal with Putin, Putin keeps the war going in the hope of getting what he wants through Trump and Witkoff. Ukraine's only option is to hold out and keep killing Russian troops and tanks and bomb harder and deeper inside of Russia.