Economy

Edited to add: OP's article, viewable archive.is version: https://archive.is/Hs8r1   End Edit

CPI-U All Items less food, energy, and shelter, seaonally adjusted:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L12E

To see more than the index values, Click on "More Formatting Options" on the upper right

On the page that appears, click on some of these checkboxes as one pleases (no harm checking on them all, it all ends up in one page, one after the other)
1-Month Percent Change
2-Month Percent Change
3-Month Percent Change
6-Month Percent Change
12-Month Percent Change

Set the "Specify Year Range" from 2023 to 2024 to match the OP's graphs

From reading many articles, I do know that the Fed follows this (core ex shelter) with a lot of interest (and/or perhaps a similarly named core ex-shelter series), so they aren't a bunch of ring-ring-ring-a-ding-dongs who aren't aware that rents lag in the CPI and PCE.

That said, I've been reading since September of 2022, yes, 1 3/4 years ago, -- and many times since -- that new leases are averaging less than the previous leases, and that this will put downward pressure on the CPI and especially the core CPI over the next several months (meaning the next several months since the article was written, many months or more than a year ago).

But it hasn't happened yet. Shelter in the last 7 months has been coming in at a nearly steady 0.4% increase per month, month after month, excepting an excursion to 0.6% in January. The latest year-over-year number is 5.4%. Shelter is one of those "factor X's" that I keep in mind that may finally show up as a CPI-reducing item, but it hasn't yet for whatever reason.

Shelter: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAH1

CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Thanks much for the graphs and the topic.