One source of evidence is the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations. I usually follow that survey to track expected inflation, which remains fairly subdued. But the survey also asks consumers whether they expect their financial situation to be better or worse a year from now. Here’s the difference between the percentage who said better off and those who said worse off:

There has been a huge improvement not just since the worst of the inflation surge but even since late last year. We’re almost back to the optimism that prevailed in President Biden’s early months, before inflation took off.

Another source of evidence, albeit with less of a track record, is a survey conducted by The Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, which asks voters whether Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job of managing the economy. Earlier this year Trump had a double-digit lead; now it’s down to four points.

It’s still unlikely that the economy will be a net plus for Biden. But it may be much less of a drag than many expect (especially given falling gas prices). Which in turn means that the election may turn on other issues, like the Republican threat to birth control.