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"Dow 50,000" Sound Nice. Until Justin Wolfers Shows You That U.S. Markets Are Coming 21st Out of 23. - Justin Wolfers [View all]
What does “Dow 50,000” actually tell you—anything about the economy, or just that a number got bigger?
Dow 50,000 is a milestone, not a measurement. The level of the Dow is basically arbitrary: it’s a committee-picked set of 30 blue-chip companies, and it’s not “the economy.” So if someone wants to turn the stock market into a political report card, the only honest question is: compared to what?
Using the standard apples-to-apples benchmark for international comparisons (the MSCI Total Return Index, which includes dividends), U.S. stocks are up about 16% since the start of Trump’s second presidency. The rest of the world is up nearly 38%. Put differently: if there were a “Rest of World Dow” starting at the same level, the celebration wouldn’t be Dow 50,000—it would be Dow 60,000.
And that gap isn’t abstract. On a $43,488 investment, the difference between 16% and 38% is roughly $10,000. That’s the kind of “missing money” that matters for real retirement accounts, college savings, and long-run wealth.
The stakes are bigger than one headline. Markets price the future—and they tend to dislike uncertainty, disruption, and instability in rules and institutions. If the U.S. is serving up more uncertainty than peer countries, investors may simply be willing to pay less for assets tied to America’s future. - 02/14/2026.
Topics covered:
Why the Dow’s level (50,000) is a milestone, not a real economic measure
How the Dow is constructed—and what it leaves out
Why the stock market is not the same as “the economy”
How to compare markets properly with the MSCI Total Return Index
Why “total return” (including dividends) changes the story
How the U.S. (16%) stacks up against the world ex-U.S. (38%)
The “Rest of World Dow” thought experiment (50k vs 60k)
What the performance gap means for a typical investor in dollars
Why comparing to peer economies (G7) is a fairer benchmark
Where the U.S. ranks among developed markets (21st out of 23)
Why markets tend to hate uncertainty and disruption
The broader habit: always ask “Compared to what?”
Contents:
00:00 Dow 50,000—and the economist’s annoying question
01:10 What the Dow actually is (and isn’t)
03:05 The right comparison: U.S. vs rest of world (MSCI total return)
05:05 Turning percentages into the missing “Dow 60,000” headline
06:15 Making it personal: where the “missing $10k” comes from
07:20 Comparing the U.S. to G7 peers—and the 21st-of-23 ranking
08:20 Why markets may be docking the U.S.: uncertainty and institutions
09:20 The rule for every headline number: “Compared to what?”
🎯 Key takeaway: Big numbers aren’t evidence—context is the evidence.
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