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Americans braced for biggest unemployment rate jump since the pandemic as tariffs muddy outlook

Alexandra Canal Senior Reporter
Updated Mon, April 14, 2025 at 11:08 AM EDT
3 min read

Unemployment concerns are on the rise among American workers as fears about the labor market in March reached levels last seen during the pandemic, according to a new survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

The NY Fed's survey showed mean unemployment expectations among respondents — or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% last month, the highest level since April 2020.

The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points in March to 15.7%, the highest level since March 2024. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000.

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