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CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
13. I disagree!!! Some of the those state are close
Thu Aug 4, 2016, 09:42 PM
Aug 2016

Do you see those states colored light blue - those are states which are learning to Hillary, where she is slightly ahead. While I think that her lead in those states will probably get larger as polls taken more recently are added in, right now those states add up to 98 electoral votes. With them as Hillary wins 347-191 as the article shows. However if they were all to flip to Trump (unlikely) it would be Hillary 249 -Trump 289.

Some states are fairly close; they re not "in the bag" by a long shot. For instance Nate Silver gives Hillary a 47.7% of the vote and Trump 44.1% in Ohio - a 3.6% lead. Florida is bit better 49.1% / 44.9 - 4.2% lead. Iowa 48.2% / 44.2% - 4.0% lead, and North Carolina 47.8% / 46.6% - 1.2% lead. If Trump can flip just those 4 states with 68 electoral votes, it get a lot closer in the Electoral College - Hillary 279 / Trump 259.

So here is what I would suggest:

1) Don count our chickens until they hatch.

2) GOTV



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