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Maine Gov. Janet Mills’ entrance into the Senate race on Tuesday marks a significant escalation in political firepower aimed at longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins, the only Republican senator representing a state carried by then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. For the first time since she was elected in 1996, Collins could face off against a sitting statewide officeholder who, like her, has a proven track record of outperforming the presidential ticket of her party.

Mills, of course, does not have a clear path to the nomination, and there is no guarantee that she will win it. But she is a top-tier recruit in a field that currently lacks a well-known or well-established candidate. And while Collins has defied electoral expectations for decades, the political environment today is more polarized than ever, which makes Collins’ ability to effectively straddle partisan lines more challenging.

As such, we are moving the contest from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

There are several other Democrats in the race, but oyster farmer and first-time political candidate Graham Platner appears to be Mills’ most serious