A Tied Senate Race Gives Democrats a Shot in Deep Red Texas, Poll Finds [View all]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/us/politics/texas-senate-poll-talarico-paxton.html

A Tied Senate Race Gives Democrats a Shot in Deep Red Texas, Poll Finds
James Talarico, a Democratic state lawmaker, is tied with Ken Paxton, the Republican state attorney general, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.
By Shane Goldmacher, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker
June 30, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET

The Democratic Party has a serious chance to win a Senate seat in Texas for the first time in a generation, as James Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, begins the summer locked in a tied race with Ken Paxton, the Republican state attorney general weighed down by past scandals, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

Frustrations over President Trump’s handling of the economy and concerns about Mr. Paxton’s character have put the Senate seat in play in one of the nation’s Republican strongholds.

Mr. Paxton, 63, swept past indictment, impeachment and allegations of infidelity to thump an incumbent Republican senator who vastly outspent him in a primary this year. Now, as he faces Mr. Talarico, a 37-year-old who is training to be a minister, Mr. Paxton finds himself in a tight race that is marked by striking demographic divides.

Overall, Mr. Talarico and Mr. Paxton each garnered 47 percent of the vote in the poll.