General Discussion

https://cis.mit.edu/news/assessing-xis-unprecedented-purges-chinas-military-key-developments-and-potential-implications
Assessing Xi’s unprecedented purges of China’s military

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Several implications follow from this analysis. First, the depth of the purge suggests that dissatisfaction with the PLA leadership’s performance is a major factor in Xi’s calculus (in addition to concerns about corruption, political loyalty, military autonomy, military obedience, or policy differences).

Second, rebuilding the PLA leadership will take time. A large gap exists at the theater command leader grade, with 38 officers in such positions having been dismissed or disappeared. They can only be replaced by officers serving in theater deputy leader command positions, yet with 56 officers in this grade having been dismissed, the pool of potential officers who can be promoted to theater command level positions has been cut by more than one-third. Moreover, to be promoted to a higher grade, an officer typically must serve three to five years in their current grade, further complicating efforts to replenish the leadership positions.

Third, the purge underscores the challenges that PLA leadership would face, either with empty billets or newly promoted officers inexperienced in their new roles, in undertaking large-scale military operations such as a blockade or amphibious assault of Taiwan. Although roughly half (53 percent) of theater command–level officers who were purged came from the command track, this proportion grows to around two-thirds (68 percent) at the deputy theater command level, highlighting the difficulty that the PLA will face to meet its ambitious modernization goals.

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