https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
Which shows pre-conflict production/use of "global petroleum and other liquids" ((including LNG)) of around 105 miliion barrel/day, along with its estimate that nearly 20% of this was closed off to the "de facto closure" of the Strait of Hormuz. A 20% reduction of availability brings supply to around 84 million barrels/day, about the level in 2005-2006
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20355/w20355.pdf
which cites a figure of 73.6 million barrels/day as coming from field production ((of oil)), and most of the rest from LNG.
As I previously wrote,
If the world managed then ((in 2006)), what is the problem now?
Expectations have grown, even where the population has not. Available statistics suggest China had about 49.8 million vehicles on the road in 2006, vs an estimated 415 million by late 2022, while the population of 1.310 billion in 2005 rose only to 1.425 billion in 2022. World demands for power reliability and expansion have surged (Indians’ access to electricity went from about 68% in 2006 for est. 1.173B to over 99% in 2022 for 1.425B, roughly 50% increase in those “served”), as have desires for altered/improved living standards (everything from dietary changes to “the plastic we wear” to material acquisition), technological changes (including data centers) and so on.
COULD the world return to 2006 levels of petroleum usage? The “easy’ answer is “it would if it HAD to”. However, this would come with associated impacts, perhaps the reopening of idled/shuttered coal plants and so on.
In my opinion, the real question is, WOULD the needed reduction in usage occur without mandates such as the ones during COVID?
((I hope we don't have to find out the hard way if this drags on into heating season/the Southern Hemisphere's planting season))
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