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General Discussion

Wiz Imp

(10,346 posts)

3. Democrats will win the House and it won't be close.

Reply to Alhena (Original post)

Fri May 8, 2026, 11:04 AM

Friday

https://www.racetothewh.com/house
2026 House Election Forecast
Every week day, the House Forecast simulates the election 10,000 times. Since it was launched in 2022, it has correctly called 97.2% of races.

Chance to Win House Majority
Democrats 81.1% Chance
Republicans 18.9% Chance

Projected Seats Won
It takes 218 seats to win the House Majority
Democrats 233.7 Seats
Republicans 201.3 Seats

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Highlight:

Betting markets still think we win the House? [View all] Alhena Friday OP

I wouldn't count on it, especially with the recent Supreme Court rulings essentially killing the voting rights act, and lostincalifornia Friday #1

That only resulted in a four point bump for Republicans in the market I linked Alhena Friday #2

Democrats will win the House and it won't be close. Wiz Imp Friday #3

We picked up 41 seats in 2018 and voters seem angrier now than they were then Alhena Friday #5

Yep. The gerrymandering may allow the Republicans to somewhat limit their losses, but it won't prevent them from losing Wiz Imp Friday #8

Gawd, I hope so. He loves having things named after himself? tanyev Friday #10

Things are Terrible Aepps22 Friday #4

Yep. And a reminder: Wiz Imp Friday #7

Democrats are going to roll the house Boo1 Friday #6

If the redistricting debacles won't enrage the general electorate and push them to vote out the GOP, Safe as Milk Friday #9

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