2024-Q4 to 2026-Q1 marks the longest downward trend in R+R leaning I's since 2015. 39% is lowest since '91 [View all]

The consistent downward trend took off after Q4 2024. Since then it has been a steady downward trend for six quarters. At no point prior to that since 2016 has the trend been the same direction for that many quarters. I find that significant.

And 2026-Q1 marks the lowest level of R+R leaning I's since 1991 (39% was also seen in 2008 and 1993)



Sure, maybe we shouldn't get too excited until the gap between D+D leaning I's and R+R leaning I's hits 15 points (that is, a bigger gap than any time since 1991), but I see the current trend as quite significant -- and a good sign. And while the current D+D leaning I's isn't as high as in 2008, I also find it significant that the number of R+R leaning I's is at the same low level of 39% we saw in 2008 and 1993 -- lowest since 1991 at least.