Professor Robert A. Pape: In the last 24 hours: --Iran seized ships in Hormuz --The U.S. seized Iranian tankers [View all]

This isn’t chaos—it’s the first rung of escalation I predicted before the ceasefire ended.

We are now in the demonstration phase

This is how escalation begins—and why it doesn’t stop here:

Link to tweet

Robert Pape vs. the “Joe Kent Plan”: Is There a Third Way Out of the Iran Escalation Trap?

🔸Joe Kent, a former senior Trump administration official who resigned in protest over the Iran war, has proposed a third path absent a deal with Iran— walk away from active military escalation, keep sanctions in place, and let regional powers negotiate bilateral deals over Hormuz passage with Iran.

🔸Professor Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and author of the Escalation Trap Substack, says Kent’s plan doesn’t stop Iran from becoming the fourth center of world power, though it may slow it down slightly.

▪️“There’s no actual way to stop Iran from exerting more power… Donald Trump has doomed us to a trap,” Pape told Breaking Points.

▪️On the economy, Professor Pape says Kent’s plan doesn’t necessarily reopen the Strait for Gulf oil exporters — meaning the global economic damage continues regardless.

▪️His conclusion is that Kent is choosing a fork in the road, but is not escaping the trap Trump built for the United States by entering “this catastrophic disaster, [which] will probably go down certainly the worst since Vietnam.”

▪️“Vietnam did not wreck the world’s economy. The 2003 Iraq war did not wreck the world’s economy… This is all on his back,” the Professor said. “He’s given Iran actual knowledge they did not have before — they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America.”
https://x.comPa/DropSiteNews/status/2047105180882104686

Pape's bio here:https://political-science.uchicago.edu/directory/Robert-Pape

I don't know what to say any longer about the lunatic Trump.