General Discussion

but here are some snippets I've picked up along the way.

Bulgaria's had eight general elections in the last five years, leading to a succession of unstable right-wing coalitions with rampant corruption provoking widespread demonstrations. Rumen Radev, who had served as Bulgaria's president for nine years, resigned in January, and stood for the premiership on a platform of stability and counter-corruption promises. He's labelled left-of-centre and his election campaign had populist aspects, but is against arming Ukraine and wants dialogue with Russia instead, and also opposed Bulgaria's eventual adoption of the euro in January, being a long-term Eurosceptic.

Bulgaria ranks as the poorest and most corrupt EU member state, a position it's shared with Hungary in recent times.

Radev's election campaign has been branded vague beyond his commitments to ending the contant rounds of changes of government and combating corruption.

He's going to need allies in the EU if he's to have any hope of improving conditions in Bulgaria before the electorate grows impatient and restless again. Some of the usual dissenting regimes like Czechia and Slovakia might seem like suitable candidates for alliances of convenience, but these would be uneasy given their right-wing populist tendencies.

If Radev joins the chorus of obstruction on issues like support for Ukraine, it could spur the rest of the EU to legislate to abandon the need for unanimity in votes even more than Hungary and other countries' historical obstructionism has done.

Given Russia's current economic weakness and poor international standing, it seems a bad time to look to it for support, apart perhaps from some deals on cheaper petrochemicals, which might be countered by moves from the EU as it seeks to lessen its dependence on these sources of energy. Bulgaria has already transitioned to sourcing petrochemicals from Kazakhstan, Iraq and Tunisia in recent years. However, the influence of Russian propaganda is strong in Bulgaria, and Radev seems unlikely to tackle it on past form, having branded previous moves to do so as "EU meddling" in Bulgaria's affairs. A number in the civil and military ranks also have links to Russia in various forms and degrees.

Radev's poll results mean he could command an outright majority in the Bulgarian parliament, but bear in mind that his winning party is already a de facto alliance of three smaller parties, and he's made noises about possibly seeking a further coalition, presumably to promote unity in the face of the serious challenges the country faces, so how stable his government will prove in reality remains to be seen. The most likely candidates seem to be a couple of relatively minor pro-EU/anti-corruption parties, and he's shown no interest so far in allying with the Revival Party, which is overtly pro-Russia.