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Wiz Imp

(10,341 posts)

19. Extremely weak & misleading explanation.

Wed Feb 11, 2026, 12:08 PM

Feb 11

They should have just said there was a problem with the birth-death model and left it at that. When to explain the issue with the birth-death model, it makes no sense.

The reason is a surge in new business formation.

Census Bureau data show that before 2020, Americans were filing about 300,000 new business applications a month. The number was steady for years. Then the pandemic hit. Since then filings have averaged more than 400,000 a month. Some months have been higher. People want to work from home. More are willing to try entrepreneurship. New tools, including AI, make it easier to start.

If they're significantly underestimating new business formation wouldn't that likely mean underestimating job creation?? Yet jobs were overestimated.

They should have just stuck with their last sentence.

What’s for sure is the past two years of record revisions show the birth-death model isn’t capturing the jobs picture as well as it once did.

And blaming job revisions entirely on the birth/death model is ridiculous. A significant factor in the revision is an inaccuracy in the estimates due to extremely poor response rates to the survey.

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BLS jobs report revises 2025 down to +181,000 total jobs added for the year [View all] Johnny2X2X Feb 11 OP

Yet the billionaires Trump sycophants keep artificially inflating the Stock Market. Chasstev365 Feb 11 #1

What you're seeing is a total divorce for working people and economic indicators Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #3

It's not billionaires doing that, it is us WSHazel Feb 11 #4

If you believe this report, UpInArms Feb 11 #2

Does this count all the jobs lost? nt leftyladyfrommo Feb 11 #5

We need to add 140,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #6

There is no statistical justification for pulling 800,000 jobs out of 2024 WSHazel Feb 11 #7

You have no clue what you're talking about Wiz Imp Feb 11 #12

Slow your roll WSHazel Feb 11 #15

There was a change in how small businesses are calculated EdmondDantes_ Feb 11 #16

I get that for the most part WSHazel Feb 11 #18

Last time I respond to you but to repeat, you have no clue how the Benchmark revision process works. Wiz Imp Feb 11 #21

I understand what the words say WSHazel Feb 11 #23

Extremely weak & misleading explanation. Wiz Imp Feb 11 #19

Not necessarily. EdmondDantes_ Feb 11 #28

Wow! Dunning Kruger in action! Wiz Imp Feb 11 #17

Are you being deliberately obtuse? WSHazel Feb 11 #20

Right here: Wiz Imp Feb 11 #22

Just so we are aware of your position WSHazel Feb 11 #25

🙄 Wiz Imp Feb 11 #26

One final thing. Wiz Imp Feb 11 #27

Not a hard concept WSHazel Feb 12 #31

I do not believe we added 130,000 jobs in January 2026 OrlandoDem2 Feb 11 #8

That's not a good number Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #9

How has unemployment not gone higher? Johonny Feb 11 #10

It's risen some, like a half point Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #11

Media making it sound like these job numbers Johonny Feb 11 #13

These numbers are a total disaster Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #14

Because many people, myself included, just stop looking TexasBushwhacker Feb 11 #24

MaddowBlog-New report shows 2025 was even worse for U.S. job market than we thought LetMyPeopleVote Feb 11 #29

I'm old enough to remember Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #30