General Discussion

Five Questions About American Foreign Policy

First, the WSJ story highlights all of the downsides to Trump’s brand of start-up diplomacy. Both Witkoff and the Russians had little interest in consulting with “the traditional U.S. national security apparatus.” Witkoff disdained using secure fixed lines to communicate with allies. He met Putin in St. Petersburg for three hours, during which, “Witkoff took his own notes, relying on a Kremlin translator, then briefed the White House from the U.S. Embassy.” He failed to brief either the CIA or State about a proposed prisoner exchange that fell through.
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Second, what exactly are multinational firms thinking?! The WSJ story reports on a few minor deals, but also that, “in secret talks, Exxon Mobil Senior Vice President Neil Chapman met Rosneft boss Igor Sechin, Putin’s former private secretary, in the Qatari capital Doha, to discuss Exxon’s return to the massive Sakhalin project, an investment stranded after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.”
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Third, what are these guys’ precise theory of commercial peace? Witkoff told the WSJ,. “Russia has so many vast resources, vast expanses of land. If we [all become business partners], and everybody’s prospering and they’re all a part of it, and there’s upside for everybody, that’s going to naturally be a bulwark against future conflicts there. Because everybody’s thriving.” Similarly, the Journal reports, “For many in the Trump White House, that blurring of business and geopolitics is a feature, not a bug. Key presidential advisers see an opportunity for American investors to snap up lucrative deals in a new postwar Russia and become the commercial guarantors of peace.”
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Fourth, does anyone in this administration actually understand national power? Trump and his acolytes like to hammer home the point that Russia is more powerful than Ukraine. Sure, that’s an important reality to acknowledge. So are the following:

https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/five-questions-about-american-foreign