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Ol Janx Spirit

(514 posts)
7. It's kind of the other way around. The stock market will tell us how the economy is doing overall regardless...
Sat Nov 29, 2025, 09:35 AM
Saturday

...of how individual sectors of the economy are doing or how we perceive it to be doing.

Consumer spending has remained fairly strong which seems to belie the idea that the economy is actually faltering yet, but other indicators like credit card debt and car loan defaults portend some possible trouble on the horizon.

A lot of that spending has been buoyed by the top 50% of earners which indicates that they are still feeling positive about their personal economies--possibly in part because of their stock market gains.

Still, "[t]he National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts total holiday sales (November and December, excluding auto, gas, and restaurant sales) to increase between 3.7% and 4.2% over last year, reaching over $1 trillion."
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-expects-holiday-sales-to-surpass-1-trillion-for-the-first-time-in-2025

Those kind of sales numbers are sure to make the markets at least temporarily happy if they pan out.

In addition, the current damage to the U.S. economy is totally self-inflicted. Just imagine what will happen in both the economy and the markets if tariffs are struck-down or simply removed.

Then again, we have a maniac at the helm of the ship right now--and he fired all of the watchmen. It will be sheer luck if we don't hit an iceberg at this point.

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