Why the proposed Texas congressional map may not be a lock to net five new GOP seats [View all]

The proposed overhaul of Texas’ congressional map is, as demanded by President Donald Trump, designed to give the GOP five new seats in next year’s midterm election.

But while the newly drafted lines would all but assure Republicans at least some pickups, an analysis of the tentative redistricting plan suggests the GOP is far from guaranteed to net all five seats.

The map, for one, relies on census data from 2020 in a state with a rapidly growing population and demographics that are poised to continue changing in the years to come. And while the five reconfigured districts would have been firmly for Trump if they’d been in place last year, other recent statewide races would have been far more competitive — especially in the midterm years of 2018 and 2022, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke would have carried or narrowly lost some of the new districts in his runs against Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Greg Abbott.

Still, the proposal presented few, if any, opportunities for Democrats to flip the script by targeting Republican districts — a possibility even some GOP incumbents were girding for ahead of the draft map’s release.




https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/31/texas-redistricting-map-democrats-defense-targeted-seats-congress/