General Discussion

The decline in male support for the Democratic Party in 2024 looks a lot like what happened with male voters in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was the party nominee.

In 2012, when Barack Obama faced off against Mitt Romney, there was an 8-point gender gap, according to Catalist. In 2016, the gender gap increased to 12 points. In 2020, Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, it closed back to nine percentage points. And in 2024, it had increased to 13 points. By and large, female support for the Democratic ticket was constant throughout these four elections; only male support for Democrats fluctuated.

Again, this seesawing support is evident across virtually all demographic groups. Democratic support among white non-college-educated voters is perhaps the most striking example. The party’s support with white non-college-educated women has been nearly constant in every election since 2012. But among white non-college-educated men, there was a six-point drop from 2012 to 2016, a two-point increase in 2020, and then a three-point drop in 2024. A similar gender gap was also evident among college-educated men.

So over the last four elections, we see a similar pattern — Democrats lose support with men when there’s a woman on the ticket, and gain it back when they nominate a man.