Supermarket prices are unstable. Items with tariffs are skyrocketing, but there have been a lot of discounts on junky American food. eBay has suddenly begun sending me emails to bid, bid, bid on items I only looked at. I take that as a sign of desperation. Employment advertising is 1/2 FBI and ICE advertisements. It's not that things are crashing or growing or unstable. It's that they're teetering. No one knows which direction things are headed. Companies don't need to hire or fire, they just don't want to be without the expertise they have so they don't fire just yet. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush sort of scenario.

When things crash, Trump will blame everyone else. That's a given. But we face only two outcomes. 1) Crash due to everything topping from global contraction due to tariff warfare, or 2) quickly lowered interest rates and quick, harsh stagflation from tariffs and stimulation. We will get one or the other. There are not adequate idle resources to stimulate.