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Related: About this forumU.S. Ports Emptying, Barren Store Shelves Coming Thanks To the Incompetent Degenerate

wolfie001
(4,804 posts)
dchill
(42,198 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(55,108 posts)It stated that the rise was due to a flood of amateur investors that surprised the pros. There is a lot of negative sentiment among the barely active investors, who mindlessly set their 401k at 60/40 stocks/bonds because their advisers automatically advise laziness (which is not bad advice for low-info long horizon types). But active amateurs love to "buy the dip". And some indicators where indicating oversold conditions. Today Cramer is saying he thinks there won't be a recession.
Too many pros and too many amateurs are tuning out the abnormality of the current situation and proceeding as if their indicators are nomrally applicable.
Steve Liesman was saying separately that this is not normal because the tariffs are a "supply shock", not the usual demand slowdown of usual recessions. He pointed to the 70s as the most recent example of a supply shock. Then the OPEC oil embargo was applied. That lead to stagflation as we know, and as we should be wary of now.
wolfie001
(4,804 posts)I was hoping for an explanation that made sense of this craziness.
peter500
(2 posts)Supply line destruction is fast accomplished but can take years to efficiently re-establish. Much of the damage has already been done
and cannot be quickly fixed even if tariffs are soon eliminated.