Let's talk about Trump's stalled peace talks.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's stalled peace talks.

Just to start off with, I don't have any information that isn't widely available about the White House correspondents dinner. So rather than repeating what you've heard a dozen times by now, we're going to cover things that will likely be overshadowed by those events.

Trump once again claimed that peace was on the horizon and that Iran wanted to make a deal. There was supposed to be a high-level meeting between US and Iranian officials in Pakistan. The Iranian foreign minister left and the US delegation's trip was cancelled. Iran's foreign minister reportedly went to Oman and met with the Sultan. Oman is on the opposite side of the Strait of Hormuz. There's a little rumor mill chatter suggesting that the foreign minister was feeling the Sultan out about being cut in on the fees for the strait.

Iran's president seemed to indicate that no peace was possible while the US was still blockading Iranian ships and said that his country would not engage in “forced negotiations.”

Trump's version of the scrapped meeting is a little different and he posted to social media, “I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going to Islamabad, Pakistan to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling. Too much work. Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their leadership. Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards. They have none. If they want to talk, all they have to do is call.”

Too much work. Imagine being deployed and hearing the Commander-in-Chief say that diplomats flying in luxury, eating gourmet meals, and chatting is just too hard. I'm sure morale is doing great. troops moving from calling it Operation Epstein Fury to Operation Epic Failure isn't a bad sign at all.

It honestly seems like Trump is beginning to understand why the long-standing line on the channel is that Iran doesn't have a government. It has three governments in a trench coat. I'm pretty sure what Trump is seeing as infighting is actually just how their system functions. It would have been great if the administration had understood this before launching an air campaign with the intent of removing the leadership. It's hard to take the head off of a government when the government has three heads and each head has multiple deputy heads and then there are autonomous heads scattered all over the country.

Right now, the current state of play is pretty simple. Iran has withstood the US barrage and maintains effective control of the strait and with that a fifth of the world's oil supply. The US is heavily hindering Iran's ability to move its shipping. Based on the current levels of military engagement and the signals that the sides have sent out about how far they're willing to go, it doesn't appear that either side can decisively defeat the other. Each side is demanding something from the other in the negotiations that they won't provide.

Meanwhile, the global economy and thousands of lives hang in the balance. Negotiations breaking down into a high school game of who calls who first isn't a good sign.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.