Let's talk about Trump and the GOP's warning signs.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump and the GOP's warning signs.

I've talked a lot about the flashing warning signs for the Republican party in the midterms, and I've pointed to specific things and gone deep with the numbers and the swings. But for people who don't really follow every detail of politics, it doesn't provide the general lay of the land. It's led to messages like, "Hey Belle, I see Democrats overperforming in some races, and I hear people say that there's reason to be optimistic, but I'm not really sure how much Democrats have to win by to make a change. Landslides in a single race are still just one seat, right?”

Okay. So, we need a strategic overview of the lay of the land. As it stands, Republicans have both the House and the Senate. If Democrats can win a majority in either of those, they can derail a lot of Trump's further advances. If they can get both, they can derail pretty much everything and maybe even unwind it a bit.

Let's start with the House of Representatives. Republicans have a 218 to 214 majority. There are three empty seats. Assuming those seats go the way they're expected, Democrats only need to pick up a few seats to flip control. There are about three dozen seats that are seen as in play. These are seats that aren't safe. It includes seats that lean to one party or the other but aren't safe. And it includes the true toss-ups. When you look even closer at those that are true toss-ups, Democrats are holding four tossup seats. Republicans are holding more than a dozen. That means Democrats have many more opportunities to pick up seats. With the current political trends, it seems probably even likely they pick up the handful of seats they need to take the majority. But a lot can happen in 9 months.

Over in the Senate, things work differently. Not every seat is up for grabs this year. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot. Democrats need to pick up four of those to get the majority, but only 10 are in play. It's not as lopsided, though. While there's plenty of possibilities in the House for pickups, in the Senate, Democrats need to defend all of their in-play seats and pick up four of the six Republican seats that are in play. If you live in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, or Texas, your vote for senator is going to be crucial. It's possible Democrats pull this off, but much harder to do than the House.

What's working in the Democratic party's favor? First, Republicans are retiring at a faster rate. when they retire. It removes the incumbent advantage. Second, midterms are generally a referendum on the party in power. Trump is unpopular. His policies are unpopular and he's driving away his swing voters. Third is a test of the first two. Democrats are frankly smoking Republicans in special elections. vacancies are being filled by Democrats because Trump and his policies are unpopular. Fourth, all early data indicates Republicans really screwed up with the redistricting war they started. Then the last one, it's the economy, stupid. I know you probably get tired of hearing about it, but Americans, like those comfortable in the seat of all empires in history, care about the pebble in their shoe.

The economy is not doing well for the average person and polling says more people expect it to get worse, not better. This would always be bad for the party in power. It's especially bad if the president ran on grandiose economic promises and made it worse because voters rightfully feel played. Assuming current trends remain, Democrats are well positioned to retake the House. They might retake the Senate.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.