How an Aging Population Can Be Positive for the Economy
https://www.marcus.com/us/en/resources/heard-at-gs/how-an-aging-population-can-be-positive-for-the-economyThis article was originally published on Goldman Sachs Insights, which features analysis and perspectives on the global economy and markets from across Goldman Sachs.
Just a bit:
People are becoming healthier around the world
People today are healthier as they age, unlike their ancestors, Daly writes. A 70-year-old in 2022 had the same cognitive ability as a 53-year-old in 2000, according to a recent International Monetary Fund study of a large sample of individuals from both developed and emerging economies. The physical robustness of that 70-year-old corresponded to someone who was 56 in 2000.
“The fact that we are not only living longer but also slowing the process of aging throughout our lives raises an important economic point,” Daly writes. If increases in life expectancy extend the amount of time spent in the traditional idea of frail “old age,” more goods and services tailored for seniors will be needed. But if a more accurate picture is that the onset of “old age” happens later and later in life, an increased demand for products and services catering to an older population is less certain. “In a very tangible sense, 70 is the new 53,” he adds.
How does an aging population affect the economy?
A primary concern with an aging population is how it affects the so-called working-age ratio, the portion of the population in the 15-to-64 age range. This declines as more people reach retirement age, raising the fear that GDP per person will dwindle. In developed economies, the working-age ratio reached a plateau of around 67% from 1985 to the early 2000s but has since dropped to 63% and is projected to fall to 57% by 2075.
The key question, though, is whether employment falls on a one-for-one basis with changes in the working-age ratio, Daly says. Assuming this to be true “appears unduly pessimistic,” he writes. Age-specific employment rates are constantly changing and merely looking at the portion of the population in that 15-to-64 age range doesn’t tell the whole story.
The only reason to date why I would return to work is the free air-conditioning you get at work.
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Long story short, seniors seem to be hanging on to homes (thank Prop 13 for that) and planning to pass them to their kids.
At a CA median of some $860K, that's a damn lot of money. YMMV.
The debate is raging over the effects of AI, which are principally to savage jobs, but it is following the famous Gartner Hype Cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle and may crash with a thud as all the low hanging fruit is plucked and AI/LLM's increasingly feed on themselves.
Looks lots better NOT in dark mode!
Some will experience increased productivity as it is focused on narrow verticals, cleaned of crud and garbage. Others will misuse it very badly, as people are doing now, no doubt in my mind, on the so-called Epstein evidence, to make it say the opposite of what it did when gathered.
So, the longer term effect is entirely unknown.
As with all models, they're as good as the data included (and not included!) and the algo's.
Computers? I was composing a long post today and went to preview and lost all my typing in a network fainting spell. I forgot to save it before trusting the internet to process it (it went to the internet black hole instead), so take all this with a grain of salt, or a mountain of salt, in case a tsunami washes it all away.
"The internet is one tough town" and it's not getting any better.
I should reinvent it. 
