Ukraine Is Sinking Russia's Shadow Fleet - Good Times Bad Times (The 20s Report)

Summary
This article examines the complex geopolitical and economic dynamics surrounding potential peace negotiations in the Ukraine-Russia war, focusing on three main threads:

US Business Interests and Peace Talks
American business figures close to Trump, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are reportedly pursuing economic deals with Russia worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The Wall Street Journal describes efforts to reframe Russia as a "land of opportunity" rather than a military threat, with various Trump-connected businessmen exploring deals in Russian energy, rare earth metals, and even the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Battle Over Frozen Russian Assets
Europe holds approximately €187 billion in frozen Russian assets, primarily in Belgium through Euroclear. While European nations (especially Eastern Europe) want to transfer these funds to Ukraine, Belgium has been hesitant due to legal concerns. The US administration appears to want control over this "card" in peace negotiations, with conflicting signals from Belgian officials suggesting possible American pressure to delay any transfer.

Ukraine's Strategic Position
Political instability: President Zelensky's approval has reportedly collapsed to 20% following corruption scandals involving close associates
Military pressure: Ukraine lost 500-700 km² in November, the worst monthly result in nearly two years
Offensive operations: Ukraine has escalated attacks on Russia's "shadow fleet" oil tankers and continues striking refineries, taking over 30% of Russian refining capacity offline
Economic warfare: These strikes aim to disrupt both supply (refineries) and demand (deterring tanker operators) for Russian oil

The article concludes that while both sides face immense pressure, Russia is more likely to "play for time" rather than accept a genuine peace settlement, as Moscow's ultimate goal remains "the abolition of Ukraine as an independent state."

Summary by LeoAI (Brave browser).