U.S. Tariffs on India and China Over Russian Oil--Negotiated Away? - Econ Lessons

Hey, I am a real Economist, my name is Mark. In this video, I analyze how India and China economically benefit from importing discounted Russian oil and assess whether they genuinely take U.S. and Western threats of sanctions seriously. I explore the recent announcement of a proposed 25% U.S. tariff on Indian imports—stacked on top of a prior 25% tariff—which remains subject to a 21-day delay and open to negotiation.

Despite being a major U.S. trading partner, India appears to prioritize its strategic energy alliance with Moscow, suggesting a cost-benefit alignment tilted more toward Russia. China, with its vast economy and political leverage, remains largely beyond the reach of any severe U.S. economic pressure.

I argue that the current tariffs resemble symbolic moves—akin to a golfer taking a mulligan—serving as practice shots rather than decisive geopolitical actions. From a realist perspective, Moscow interprets threats without follow-through as weakness, buying it more time to adapt, recalibrate, and fortify its position.

Until the U.S. commits to materially overwhelming Russian military efforts in Ukraine—such as by delivering significant air defense systems—I contend that Western actions remain performative. However, despite these setbacks, I maintain that the Russian economy is on a path to collapse, and Ukrainian resilience will ultimately prevail.