WMO Projects Chances Of El Nino At 80% By September, 90% By November; Unusual Heat Likely Through Summer

The world must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño and the supercharged weather extremes it brings, the UN has warned. The powerful natural weather pattern, which raises global temperatures and worsens some rainfall, has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance before November, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.

It found most models projected the return of the cyclical phenomenon in the ocean and atmosphere to be “at least moderate” in strength, and possibly strong. Scientists have previously warned that it could be the strongest this century. However, the WMO stopped short of backing such projections and said forecasters were still in a window of uncertainty. “The spread is large,” said Celeste Saulo, the secretary general of the WMO. “There are models that are not providing any indication of a strong El Niño, while others are doing so.”

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The most recent El Niño, which hit in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to a scorchingly hot year in 2024 that broke global temperature records. The WMO said unusually high temperatures were forecast in nearly all parts of the planet for the next three months, and warned of a greater probability of extreme rain and drought.

Although each El Niño event is unique, scientists usually associate them with heavier rain in parts of South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa and central Asia. Drier conditions typically hit Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of south Asia. The warm waters can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean but hinder their formation in the Atlantic basin.

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jun/02/prepare-for-imminent-return-of-el-nino-un-warns
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jun/02/prepare-for-imminent-return-of-el-nino-un-warns