But But But . . . Drill Baby, Drill!! World Facing Oil Glut In 2026 Of Roughly 4 Million Barrels/Day, Per IEA Forecast

The world is producing more oil than it needs and by next year there could be a glut of 4m excess barrels a day entering the market, according to the global energy watchdog. The International Energy Agency said the surplus in 2026 was likely to be larger than previously forecast, despite a decision from the biggest oil producers to pause their plan to increase crude exports.

The Paris-based agency, which was set up after the 1973 oil crisis to monitor global supplies, pointed to a slower-than-usual growth in the world’s oil demand to explain the growing glut. “Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the IEA said.

The warning of a looming oversupply has emerged in the same week that the agency published its energy outlook report, including a controversial scenario in which global oil demand would continue to grow until 2050. The model, which takes a conservative view of global climate action, was dropped in 2020 after the IEA was repeatedly criticised for underestimating the growth of renewable energy in its annual report.

The IEA returned the scenario to its outlook this year after calls from the White House to present a more optimistic view for the future of oil. The IEA has denied it reintroduced its new scenario in response to pressure from the US.

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/13/oversupply-oil-barrels-energy-watchdog-iea